Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks - NHL
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by Taavi Pailk | in NHL Picks
In a fascinating Atlantic Division clash, the Buffalo Sabres will host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday at KeyBank Center, looking to continue their success in this matchup. Buffalo has posted a 7-3-1 record against Tampa Bay over the past three seasons and looks like a strong bet to grab another victory.
The Sabres haven’t quite hit the same heights as last term, but there’s still time to improve, and recent form suggests the team is on the up. Buffalo’s first shutout win of the season on Oct. 27 against San Jose sparked a 4-2-0 run.
Lindy Ruff’s side has struggled with special teams, killing just 71.2 percent of penalties and scoring on 14.3 percent of their power-play opportunities. However, the Lightning have a 72.9 percent penalty kill, giving the hosts a chance to improve their power-play efficiency Wednesday night.
While Tampa Bay looks as strong as ever, they have performed poorly away from home this season. Jon Cooper’s team has a 3-4-2 road record through nine games. Last time out, the Lightning couldn’t even beat a struggling Winnipeg team, a clear signal that things aren't clicking for them on the road.
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Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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8
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24 | 527 | 9 | 4 | +10 |
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18
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19 | 527 | 6 | 6 | -7 |
Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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Buffalo Sabres against Tampa Bay Lightning : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Apr 6, 2026 - NHL
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Players list
U. Luukkonen
C. Ellis
M. Samuelsson
C. Timmins
R. Dahlin
Z. Metsa
O. Zellweger
O. Power
J. Norris
B. Malenstyn
T. Thompson
S. Carrick
P. Krebs
N. Ostlund
T. Kozak
J. Doan
J. Kulich
J. Quinn
J. Zucker
Z. Benson
A. Vasilevskiy
D. Hildeby
V. Hedman
E. Cernak
R. McDonagh
J. Carlson
C. D'Astous
M. Crozier
J. Moser
C. Geekie
Y. Gourde
I. Mikheyev
Z. Girgensons
N. Kucherov
B. Point
A. Cirelli
P. Holmberg
B. Hagel
J. Viel
J. Guentzel
Most goals and assists
Buffalo Sabres
Tampa Bay Lightning
T. Thompson
(10 Goals)
B. Hagel
(9 Goals)
,
J. Guentzel
(9 Goals)
Z. Benson
(13 Assists)
Buffalo Sabres - Tampa Bay Lightning Key Points
- Since the start of 2023-24, Buffalo has won seven of 11 head-to-head meetings with Tampa Bay.
- The Sabres have won four of their last six games, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
- Tampa Bay is 3-4-2 on the road, allowing 4.33 goals per game.
- Buffalo has won five of the last six home games against Tampa Bay.
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Our Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
While the Lightning have been on a different level than Buffalo in recent years, they tend to struggle in head-to-head matchups. After back-to-back road wins in 2022, they have won only one of their last six visits to KeyBank Center.
The Sabres have picked up speed lately and are looking in fine form. Their offense has improved significantly, and the frontline could have a field day against a team that’s allowed 4.33 goals on the road this season.
Our prediction for Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Sabres to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
