Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open
ATP - ATP Italian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Italian Open Picks
After obliterating Alexei Popyrin in 14 games, Jannik Sinner prepares to dish out another beatdown in his fourth-round match against Andrea Pellegrino in Rome. Sinner remains an attractive pick to cover the spread despite facing a -7.5-game handicap.
Current Form:
Jannik Sinner extended his winning streak to 25 matches after decimating Alexei Popyrin 6-2, 6-0 in one hour and five minutes. Sinner maintained his undefeated 13-0 record on clay, but more importantly, he moved four wins away from claiming another clay-court title.
The Italian, who ruled the ATP 1000 tournaments in Monte Carlo and Madrid, will march into his fourth-round match with fellow Italian Andrea Pelligrino as -10,000 favorite on the moneyline market.
Pellegrino claimed his third top-100 win in the tournament following a 7-6, 6-1 win over Frances Tiafoe. The Italian qualifier holds a 15-9 record on clay this year, but the last two wins over Fils and Tiafoe are without a doubt the biggest of his career, sending him to his first fourth-round appearance in an ATP 1000 event.
Against Sinner, Pellegrino carries a +2,400 underdog value into his match with the world’s No.1. While pulling an offset over the red-hot Sinner is something close to impossible, Pellegrino has a fair shot at covering the spread with a +7.5-game cushion.
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Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino Form
Jannik Sinner and Andrea Pellegrino Latest Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
May 11, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 9, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 3, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
May 1, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 29, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 28, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
May 11, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 7, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 5, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 4, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 20, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Feb 27, 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
Jannik Sinner - Andrea Pellegrino Key Points
- Jannik Sinner is 25-0 in his last 25 matches.
- Jannik Sinner is 13-0 on clay.
- Andrea Pellegrino has saved 11 of 16 breakpoints in five matches at the 2026 Rome Masters.
- Andrea Pellegrino has converted 13 of 32 breakpoints at the 2026 Rome Masters
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Our Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino Prediction
After annihilating an in-form Alexei Popyrin, who is coming off wins over Matteo Berrettini and Jakub Mensik, Sinner has transcended to Godhood in men’s tennis. It means he can destroy a 7.5-game handicap whenever he likes. After two matches in Rome, Sinner has faced and saved one breakpoint while winning 78.9 percent of breakpoints. On the receiving end, Sinner has seized 5 of 11 breakpoints, 4 of which came in his match against Popyrin.
Pellegrino will need a big step up in his game to match what Sinner brings to the table. Unfortunately, his lack of exposure to top-flight competition will significantly put him at a disadvantage against Sinner, who has never shown compassion to low-tier opponents.
Our betting prediction for Jannik Sinner vs. Andrea Pellegrino: Jannik Sinner -7.5 Games
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