Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction & Picks - ATP Australian Open
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by Bradley Gibbs in ATP Australian Open Picks
The third and final men's match that I'm interested in (from a betting point of view) at the Australian Open on Tuesday is the one between Shintaro Mochizuki and Stefanos Tsitsipas. On paper, this should be reasonably straightforward for the Greek player, who is easily ranked above his opponent and who is no stranger to the big occasion. What's more, when these two players met in the United Cup recently, Tsitipas won in straight sets, winning 6-3, 6-4. Therefore, this should be easy for the higher-ranked player, right?
Unfortunately, all too often, Tsitsipas, despite being a hugely talented player, struggled to cope with the pressure in Grand Slam matches, even against lower-ranked players. We saw him exit the US Open to a much lower-ranked player not that long ago, while he went out in the first round of this tournament a year ago, losing in four sets to a lower-ranked player. On this occasion, sure, he should make it through, but don't be too surprised if the man now ranked at 35 in the world makes hard work of it.
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Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Form
Shintaro Mochizuki and Stefanos Tsitsipas Latest Matches
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Jan 9, 2026 - ASB Classic
Jan 3, 2026 - United Cup
Jan 2, 2026 - United Cup
Nov 2, 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship
Nov 1, 2025 - ATP Athens Hellenic Championship
Oct 17, 2025 - Almaty Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jan 13, 2026 - Adelaide International
Jan 6, 2026 - United Cup
Jan 5, 2026 - United Cup
Jan 2, 2026 - United Cup
Aug 28, 2025 - ATP US Open
Aug 26, 2025 - ATP US Open
Shintaro Mochizuki against Stefanos Tsitsipas : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
Jan 2, 2026 - United Cup
Shintaro Mochizuki - Stefanos Tsitsipas Key Points
- Each of Stefanos Tsitsipas' matches at the US Open in 2025 contained more than three sets.
- More than three sets were played in Stefanos Tsitsipas' only match at the Australian Open last season.
- Shintaro Mochizuki comes into this match having taken a set from a higher-ranked player last time out.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas often drops at least one set (even when winning) against lower-ranked players at Grand Slams.
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Our Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction
The early market is telling us that Stefanos Tsitsipas should get this job done without dropping a set, and sure, he probably should. However, there's often a sizable difference between what the Greek player should do in Grand Slam matches and what he does do. At the US Open most recently, we saw Tsitsipas drop a set when beating Muller in the first round, before losing by three sets to two against a lower-ranked player in the second round.
Time and time again, Tsitsipas lets himself down in Grand Slam matches, and he did this at the Aussie Open last season, losing in the first round to a lower-ranked player. Shintaro Mochizuki has nothing to lose and having warmed up with a reasonable effort against a higher-ranked player last time out, winning a set, the Japanese player has a slightly better chance of winning at least one set and thus pushing this match beyond the minimum number of sets than the early odds suggest.
Our Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Pick: Over 3.5 Sets.
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