Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Italian Open Picks
Listed at +150 to win in straight sets, Alexander Bublik goes for an emphatic win over Sebastian Baez in the second round of the 2026 Italian Open.
Momentum: After reaching the quarterfinals of the Monte Carlo Masters, Alexander Bublik suffered back-to-back early exits in his next two tournaments. The former top-10 player lost to Alex Molcan 4-6, 2-6 in the first round of the 2026 BMW Open in Munich and Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-6, 5-7 in the second round of the 2026 Madrid Masters.
Baez ended his three-match losing streak with a 6-2, 7-6 win over Jenson Brooksby in the first round at the Italian Open. Ranked 65th in the world, Baez has compiled a 7-7 record on clay and a 17-11 record overall in 2026.
Matchup: Bublik is 1-0 against Baez in their head-to-head series. The Kazakh defeated Baez in the first round of the 2025 Miami Open. Bublik owns a decent 54 percent win rate on clay, while Baez carries a much higher win rate of 68 percent on the red dirt.
Hot on the Board: Bublik opened the betting lines as the favorite at a fair price of -160 moneyline. Bublik offers more on the set market, where you can take him at +150 to win in 2-0 sets.
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Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Form
Sebastian Baez and Alexander Bublik Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
May 6, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 23, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 3, 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 10, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Sebastian Baez against Alexander Bublik : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
Mar 19, 2025 - ATP Miami
Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik Key Points
- Alexander Bublik won in straight sets over Sebastian Baez at the 2025 Miami Open.
- Alexander Bublik reached the quarterfinals of the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters
- Sebastian Baez owns a 68 percent win rate on clay.
- Sebastian Baez is 1-3 in his last four matches
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Our Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
Just like what happened in their previous meeting, Alexander Bublik is set to cruise to a straight-set win over Sebastian Baez in their second meeting.
Baez might have a higher win rate than Bublik, but the Kazakh has grown more dangerous on this surface in recent years, winning back-to-back clay-court tournaments in Gstaad and Generali and reaching his first Grand Slam quarterfinals at the French Open last year.
The Argentine has proven to be a tricky opponent even for top-tier players to play against on his best surface. However, going 1-3 over his last four matches could put him in a lot of a predicament in his match against a top-10 caliber opponent as he lacks the form and confidence to go toe-to-toe with the same guy who made quick work of him in Miami last year.
Our betting prediction for Sebastian Baez vs. Alexander Bublik: Alexander Bublik 2-0 Sets
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