Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks - WNBA

Prediction published on 8/15/25, 6:12 PM  by Erik Gibbs in WNBA Picks

Host Phoenix plays host to Las Vegas in a Western matchup of genuine playoff relevance. Phoenix enters at 19–12 but has been inconsistent, 4–6 in its last ten. Las Vegas is 19–14 and has found its mojo back after winning three straight on the road. The season split stands at 1–1, and both contests were close, which reinforces the notion that margins in Phoenix are thin and end-of-game performance will be what makes it.

Phoenix's personality is founded on defense and discipline. The Mercury have held relatively few opponents to less than 79 points per game and feel at ease pulling teams into half-court basketball. Alyssa Thomas powers much of the team's success as a do-everything center, averaging in excess of sixteen points, eight boards, and six assists.

She's supported in and out of the post by Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper, giving Phoenix a range of options to attack: post touches off Sabally, slashing and spot-ups off Copper, and Thomas commanding from the elbows. When the ball flows side-to-side and Phoenix takes the defensive glass, they dictate tempo and shot selection.

Las Vegas offers star power and championship bona fides. A'ja Wilson continues to be the main engine, a two-way dynamo checking in above twenty-two points and close to ten boards on average. Supporting her, Jackie Young provides perimeter pop and complementary playmaking, and Chelsea Gray provides offense steadying, set-leadership, and mismatch punishment.