Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks - ATP US Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP US Open Picks
Roman Safiullin emerges as a sharp play to cover +5.5 games in his 2026 US Open first-round clash with Carlos Alcaraz, who will be playing his first singles match in five months.
Current Form:
Carlos Alcaraz ended a five-month injury layoff to defend his US Open title in Flushing Meadows, New York. Alcaraz missed several big tournaments, including the French and Wimbledon Opens, after experiencing inflammation in his right wrist. Alcaraz competed with Serena Williams in the US Open mixed doubles tournament, but the Spaniard has not played any singles matches leading up to the final Grand Slam of the year.
After reaching the fourth round of the 2026 Wimbledon Open, Roman Safiullin has played four matches during the North American hard-court swing. Safiullin made it to the quarterfinals of the Cancun Challenger but lost to world No.258 Hugo Grenier 6-7, 6-4, 3-6 in the first round at Winston-Salem.
The Matchup: Safiullin and Alcaraz are 1-1 in their head-to-head series. Alcaraz remains the favorite at -600 despite the extended layoff, but Safiullin is drawing interest from big-swing bettors after catching a +5.5-game boost in the spread market.
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Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Form
Roman Safiullin and Carlos Alcaraz Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 24, 2026 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
Jul 5, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jul 3, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jul 1, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jun 29, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jun 25, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 12, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 11, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 10, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Roman Safiullin against Carlos Alcaraz : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
Jul 31, 2024 - Olympic Tournament
Oct 31, 2023 - Rolex Paris Masters
Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- Roman Safiullin owns a 68.9 percent win rate on the hard court.
- Roman Safiullin is 3-15 vs. top-10 players.
- Carlos Alcaraz will be playing his first singles match in five months
- Carlos Alcaraz is managing a right wrist injury.
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Our Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
The Difference Maker: It’s going to be interesting how Carlos Alcaraz plays his first match after being diagnosed with right wrist inflammation.
When healthy, Alcaraz is almost unbeatable at this stage of a Grand Slam tournament, but the uncertainty surrounding that right wrist should prevent bettors from going all-in on the Spaniard.
What to Expect: Alcaraz will probably win this match, but it will not be as smooth as he expects it to be. Safiullin is a gritty veteran who will not hand out a win so easily. Expect the Russian to apply pressure on Alcaraz, testing if his right wrist has fully healed.
In the end, Alcaraz’s quality will eventually prevail, beating Safiullin in four sets.
Fearless Forecast: Carlos Alcaraz wins 5-7, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Roman Safiullin: Roman Safiullin +5.5 Games
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
