Rafael Jodar vs Jesper De Jong Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
Hot off a deep campaign in Barcelona, Rafael Jodar eyes another explosive debut in Madrid when he takes on Jesper De Jong in the first round of this ATP 1000 event. Jodar is listed at -140 to cover -4.5 games.
Momentum: Rafael Jodar barged into the Madrid Open seeking another prolific campaign following deep runs in Marrakech and Barcelona. Jodar, 18-9 on clay, captured his first ATP title after beating Marco Trungelliti 6-3, 6-2 in the finals of the Marrakech Open and then reached the semifinals at Barcelona before losing to the eventual champion Arthur Fils 3-6, 6-3, 6-2.
Ranked 109th in the world, Jesper De Jong is 5-5 on clay and 5-11 in the season. The Dutch lost in the first round in Marrakech and Monte Carlo and the second round in Barcelona.
The Matchup: Jodar and De Jong are set to play their first match on the ATP Tour. The 19-year-old Jodar rose to 42nd in the world following his scintillating run on clay. De Jong carries a 170-96 record on clay.
Hot on the Board: Jodar is a massive favorite at -700 moneyline but offers a compelling price of -140 to cover -4.5 games on the spread market.
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Rafael Jodar vs Jesper De Jong Form
Rafael Jodar and Jesper De Jong Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Apr 18, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 17, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 15, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 13, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 5, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Apr 12, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 11, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 30, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Feb 21, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Feb 17, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
Rafael Jodar - Jesper De Jong Key Points
- Jesper De Jong owns a 63 percent win rate on clay
- Jesper De Jong is 0-6 vs. top-100 players
- Rafael Jodar dropped only three sets in his last 9 clay-court matches.
- Rafael Jodar dropped only two service games in Barcelona
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Our Rafael Jodar vs Jesper De Jong Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Rafael Jodar dismantled Jesper De Jong 6-3, 6-3
The Edge: Jodar dropped only three sets in his last 9 clay-court matches. The Spaniard utterly destroyed veterans like Jaume Munar 6-1, 6-2, Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-3, 6-3, and Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-2 in Barcelona by banking on his brute strength, athleticism, and maturity beyond his age. De Jong is a decent player, but he is 6-0 against the ATP top-100 this season.
The Play: Back Jodar to cover -4.5 Games. Expect this baby Spanish bull to continue his scintillating form in Madrid, where he’s already being viewed as one of the darkhorses. Jodar, who dropped only two service games and faced only 11 breakpoints in Barcelona, will give De Jong nightmares on the receiving end but this kid can also deal punishment as a returner with a 43 percent breakpoint conversion rate in the season.
Our betting prediction for Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper De Jong: Rafael Jodar -4.5 games
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