Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction & Picks - ATP Barcelona
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Armed with the lessons of the first loss to Rafael Jodar two weeks ago, Camilo Ugo Carabelli will attempt to put up a better fight against the red-hot Spaniard in the second round of the 2026 Barcelona Open.
Momentum: Rafael Jodar continues to stay hot after beating veteran Jaume Munar 6-1, 6-32 to pick up his sixth consecutive match on clay. The 19-year-old Jodar captured his first ATP title in Marrakech a week ago, giving him the momentum and the form to create a lot of buzz in Barcelona. Looking to tame the Spaniard’s hot run is Camilo Ugo Carabelli, who swept Karen Khachanov 6-3, 6-4. Ugo Carabelli owns an 11-4 record on clay in 2026 and already won a title this year at the Argentinian Open.
Matchup: Rafael Jodar will try to repeat against Camilo Ugo Carabelli after beating the Argentine 6-2, 6-1 in the semifinals at Marrakech. Jodar is 6-0 on clay this year and 16-8 overall on the surface. Carabelli is 11-4 on clay and 13-9 overall in 2026.
Hot on the Board: Jodar stands as a massive favorite at -500 moneyline and -145 on the -4.5 game spread line. Carabelli is a +340 underdog and +105 to cover +4.5 games. The total is pegged at over/under 20.5 games.
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Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Form
Rafael Jodar and Camilo Ugo Carabelli Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Apr 13, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 5, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 2, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 31, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 22, 2026 - ATP Miami
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 3, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 2, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 31, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Rafael Jodar against Camilo Ugo Carabelli : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Key Points
- Rafael Jodar has won his last six clay-court matches.
- Rafael Jodar has dropped only three service games over his last six matches.
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 11-4 on clay in 2026.
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the 2026 Argentinian Open Champion
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Our Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Rafael Jodar topples Camillo Ugo Carabelli anew 6-4, 7-6
Sharp Play: Bet on Carabelli to cover the spread at +4.5 games. Carabelli will get another shot at Jodar after falling to the Spaniard two weeks ago. Carabelli should walk into the rematch more prepared and tactical against Jodar, who dropped only three games en route to a title in Marrakech.
Although Jodar still seems to be the logical pick to win outright because of how well he has been playing on the dirt, Carabelli, armed with the lessons from the first loss, should give the Spaniard a tougher challenge this time around, covering the spread in the process.
Our betting prediction for Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Rafael Jodar: Camilo Ugo Carabelli +4.5 Games
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