Rafael Jodar vs Alex De Minaur Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Bradley Gibbs | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
On Friday, there are several matches taking place in the Spanish capital of Madrid, many of which should make for exciting viewing. From a betting point of view, one of the more interesting clashes is the one between up-and-comer Rafael Jodar and established-top-ten-player Alex De Minaur. After some encouraging efforts, including at the recently concluded ATP event in Barcelona, Jodar is quite fancied by the early market, but given the strength of his opponent, this doesn't seem quite right.
Sure, the youngster may prevail, but Alex De Minaur really should be considered a quite strong favorite here. Not only is he likely to be fresher than his opponent, who has endured two tricky three-set matches on the spin, but he has a very good clay-court record against players that aren't right near the top of the rankings.
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Rafael Jodar vs Alex De Minaur Form
Rafael Jodar and Alex De Minaur Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Apr 22, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 18, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 17, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 15, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 13, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 5, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 15, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 10, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur Key Points
- Rafael Jodar lost his last match against a top-25 player.
- Rafael Jodar has played back-to-back matches that have gone the distance and may not be as fresh as Alex De Minaur.
- Alex De Minaur has gone beyond the second round in Madrid on three occasions since 2021.
- Since 2024, Alex De Minaur has only lost one clay-court match against a non-top-25 player.
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Our Rafael Jodar vs Alex De Minaur Prediction
Rafael Jodar has been playing very well in recent weeks, and it's clear for all to see that he's a player on the rise. However, the yougster has had a string of tough matches, and the market is simply overestimating his chances against a top-ten player, a player who has previously done very well in Madrid.
Jodar is likely good enough to reach the top ten in time, but there's no way that he should be priced at -110 against Alex De Minaur, who should be much shorter in the betting. In other words, betting on De Minaur to win offer value for money.
Our Rafael Jodar vs Alex De Minaur Pick: Alex De Minaur to Win.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
