Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks - WNBA

Prediction published on 10/3/25, 4:35 PM  by Paul Tamayo in WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Las Vegas Aces for Game 1 of the 2025 WNBA Finals on Friday, October 3, at the Michelob Ultra Arena. 

The wheels fly to Las Vegas for the best-of-seven championship series between the Mercury and Aces. In their four meetings in the regular season, the Aces won three games by an average margin of 9.3 points. Three of those matches were only decided by under six points, although the last game was a blowout victory from the Aces.

Moreover, these two teams are close to each other in the league's rankings. On offensive rating, the Aces rank 5th (108.1) and the Mercury rank 7th (105.9). Meanwhile, the Aces rank 8th (104.4) in defensive rating, with the Mercury slotted at 5th (102.5).

Of course, Las Vegas boasts the season MVP in their lineup. A'ja Wilson is averaging 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks. During the Game 5 decider in the Aces' semifinals matchup against the Indiana Fever, Wilson put up 35 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, and 4 blocks. 

The Aces and Mercury are heading into this series with fully healthy and available lineups. This paves way for a more exciting championship series.