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by Erik Gibbs in WNBA Picks
The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces are gearing up for a crucial WNBA Commissioner’s Cup clash that could have postseason implications later in the year. Slated for Sunday, this matchup marks the first of four head-to-head meetings between the two Western Conference contenders this season. Phoenix enters the game in second place in the West with a solid 7-4 record, while Las Vegas trails slightly behind at 5-4, currently sitting fourth in the standings.
Phoenix is looking to ride the momentum from their most recent outing — a convincing 93-80 win over the Dallas Wings at home on Wednesday. While their record shows promise, the Mercury have faced some inconsistency on the offensive end. They’re averaging just 79.9 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Despite that, their field goal percentage of 42.7% — eighth-best overall — indicates that the team has the tools to score efficiently when their system clicks.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, is coming off an 88-84 home win against that same Wings team, showcasing their resilience in close contests. With an average of 82.0 points per game, the Aces are doing just enough offensively to remain competitive, even if their shooting hasn’t quite hit peak form.
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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
0.636 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
|
3
|
0.556 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Jun 11, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 7, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 5, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 3, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 1, 2025 - WNBA
May 30, 2025 - WNBA
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jun 11, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 7, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 5, 2025 - WNBA
May 30, 2025 - WNBA
May 27, 2025 - WNBA
May 25, 2025 - WNBA
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Jun 3, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 1, 2025 - WNBA
May 23, 2025 - WNBA
Sep 25, 2024 - WNBA
Sep 22, 2024 - WNBA
Sep 17, 2024 - WNBA
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Jun 13, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 11, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 7, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 1, 2025 - WNBA
May 30, 2025 - WNBA
May 25, 2025 - WNBA
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jun 13, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 11, 2025 - WNBA
May 30, 2025 - WNBA
May 23, 2025 - WNBA
Oct 6, 2024 - WNBA
Oct 4, 2024 - WNBA
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Jun 7, 2025 - WNBA
Jun 1, 2025 - WNBA
May 25, 2025 - WNBA
May 20, 2025 - WNBA
May 17, 2025 - WNBA
Oct 1, 2024 - WNBA
Phoenix Mercury against Las Vegas Aces : Head to Head (H2H)
20 %
80 %
Sep 1, 2024 - WNBA
Jun 13, 2024 - WNBA
May 21, 2024 - WNBA
May 14, 2024 - WNBA
Jul 11, 2023 - WNBA
Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces Key Points
- The Aces are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
- The Mercury are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 homes games
- The Under is 5-2 in Las Vegas's last 7 games
- The Mercury are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
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Our Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction
What may tilt this game in Phoenix’s favor is the health and depth of their roster. The Mercury are currently in better shape overall, and their defensive consistency gives them an added edge. Las Vegas is facing uncertainty surrounding their star forward A'ja Wilson, who is listed as questionable for this matchup. Her potential absence would be a significant blow to the Aces, especially against a Phoenix team that’s finding ways to win even when their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders.
Both teams have playoff aspirations, and with Commissioner’s Cup points on the line, the stakes are even higher. One area where both teams lag slightly is perimeter shooting. The Aces rank sixth in the league in three-point shooting at 33.3%, while Phoenix is close behind at 33.2%, good for eighth.
Phoenix will look to tighten their grip on the Western Conference standings, while Las Vegas aims to continue building momentum with a key road win. As long as Wilson is healthy enough to get in the game, the Mercury have the advantage. Our prediction for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: Mercury to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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