Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Italian Open Picks
Pablo Carreno Busta guns for an emphatic win over Stan Wawrinka in the final qualifying match for the 2026 Italian Open. Carreno Busta is priced at -105 to win in straight sets.
Current Form:
Stan Wawrinka will shoot for a spot in the main draw of the 2026 Italian Open on Tuesday, facing a familiar foe in Pablo Carreno Busta. Wawrinka just ended a five-match losing streak with a 4-6, 7-6, 6-1 win over Stefano Travaglia in the first qualifying match. Expected to retire at the end of the season, Wawrinka has compiled a 7-12 record on the ATP Tour this year, though he is only 1-4 on clay.
Carreno Busta is 2-3 in his last five matches and 19-10 on the 2026 ATP Tour season. At Madrid, the Spaniard made it into the second round with a three-set win over Marton Fucsovics 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 before falling to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-3. Carreno Busta took down Martin Damm Jr. 6-3, 6-3 to set up a fifth career meeting with Wawrinka.
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Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Stan Wawrinka Form
Pablo Carreño-Busta and Stan Wawrinka Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
May 4, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 23, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Feb 25, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Feb 24, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Feb 22, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
May 4, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 13, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Feb 25, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Feb 23, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Feb 12, 2026 - ATP Rotterdam
Pablo Carreño-Busta - Stan Wawrinka Key Points
- Stan Wawrinka is 3-1 vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
- Stan Wawrinka is 1-4 on clay in 2026.
- Pablo Carreno Busta is 11-3 on clay in 2026.
- Pablo Carreno Busta is 19-10 overall in 2026.
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Our Pablo Carreño-Busta vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction
Playing on his strongest surface, Pablo Carreno Busta stands as a strong pick to cruise to a straight-set win over the aging Stan Wawrinka. Busta has put together a solid 11-3 record on clay and reached back-to-back finals in Challenger tournaments in Murcia and Montemar. Moreover, he earned his lone win over Wawrinka almost four years ago in Bastad, beating the three-time Grand Slam winner 7-5, 6-4.
Wawrinka ended a five-match losing streak with a hard-earned win over Travaglia. After a promising start to his final year on the tour, Wawrinka is beginning to show signs of wear and tear during the clay-court season. He has three wins over Busta in their head-to-head series, but earning a fourth win over the Spaniard is looking like a long shot given his current form.
Our betting prediction for Stan Wawrinka vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Pablo Carreno Busta 2-0 Sets
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