Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
New customers only | Commercial content | 21+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Lou Aguila | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
Denis Shapovalov and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer lock horns in what many expect to be an action-packed faceoff in the second round of the 2026 Madrid Open. The Over 22.5 games is a sharp play here as neither of these players concedes their service games easily.
Current Form:
After a quarterfinal finish in Munich, Denis Shapovalov will try to continue sharpening his form ahead of the French Open as he embarks on another campaign in Madrid. Shapovalov is 2-2 on clay this year, losing in the first round of the Monte Carlo Masters to Alexander Blockx 4-6, 6-4, 3-6 before picking up wins over Tallon Griekspoor and Fabian Marozsan before falling again in the last eight to an inspired Alex Molcan 4-6, 4-6.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer cleared the first round in Madrid without breaking much sweat after Reilly Opelka retired due to injury while trailing the Norwegian 3-5 in the first set. Kjaer is one of several NextGen players making waves this year, which also include Martin Landaluce, Alexander Blockx and Rafael Jodar. Kjaer is 10-9 in the season (4-3 on clay).
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov Form
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 21, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 20, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 11, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 30, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 29, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Apr 17, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 16, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 19, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 8, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Denis Shapovalov Key Points
- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has a 41-22 record on clay.
- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is 0-6 vs. top-50 players on the ATP Tour.
- Denis Shapovalov reached the quarterfinals of the 2026 Munich Open.
- Denis Shapovalov has a 60 percent win rate in second-round matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Our Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Denis Shapovalov solves Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 6-3, 4-6, 7-5
I am not so sure if Kjaer can win this match-up with Shapovalov, but I am confident he has the weapons to make the Canadian work hard for the win.
In the first set of his match against Reilly Opelka, Kjaer won 93 percent of his first balls and drilled three aces while breaking the American once. It’s a sample size, but it nevertheless showed Kjaer’s improving service game.
Shapovalov is one of the biggest servers on the tour, averaging 7.4 aces and winning 71.7 percent of his first serves this year. As a returner, the Canadian isn’t much of a threat. He has converted 35.2 percent of the 88 breakpoint chances across 16 matches this season. This inability to create and convert breakpoints regularly could make Shapovalov vulnerable against the hard-hitting young star from Norway. Can Kjaer win this match? His 0-6 record against top-50 players doesn’t look promising. However, the Norwegian missile can take Shapovalov deep into this match, pushing him beyond the total set at 22.5 games.
Our betting prediction for Denis Shapovalov vs. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer: Total Over 22.5 Games
Caesars Rewards Program
Caesars Sportsbook really spoils new users with an awesome rewards program, making every wager count towards something bigger! Available for users across the country, this program is a bettor's dream. As you enjoy the thrills of sports betting or casino games online, you can earn up to 10 Reward Credits for every $100 wagered on straight bets. And if parlays are more your style, you'll earn up to 20 Reward Credits for every $100 wagered. With Caesars Sportsbook, your bets not only bring the excitement of the game but also the joy of accumulating rewards that enhance your gaming experience. Play now and let Caesars treat you like royalty with each bet you place!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
