Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks - MLB
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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet today at LoanDepot Park, with Miami chasing a sweep and New York trying to stop another damaging slide inside the NL East. The Marlins have taken control of the series by doing something simple but hard to sustain: they have pitched cleanly and converted just enough offense. Friday's 2-1 win came behind Eury Perez, who held the Mets to two hits across 6 1/3 innings while Owen Caissie drove in both Miami runs. Saturday brought a stronger follow-up, as Max Meyer struck out eight over seven dominant innings in a 4-1 win that clinched the series.
That two-game stretch is exactly what Miami needed after entering the weekend on a three-game losing streak. The Marlins are not built to overpower opponents every night, but they can be dangerous when their starters control traffic and the defense supports them. Jakob Marsee's work in center field on Friday saved extra bases, and Miami's bullpen protected narrow leads without allowing the Mets to build pressure. The Marlins have also received timely production from Liam Hicks, whose two-homer game Saturday gave the lineup a rare jolt.
The Mets are going the other direction. New York has dropped four of their last five and has looked particularly flat at the plate in Miami. Juan Soto's long homer Friday was the only real damage against Perez, and Saturday's offense did not produce a run until the ninth inning.
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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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10
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0.525 | 99 | 52 | 47 |
|
27
|
0.414 | 99 | 41 | 58 |
Miami Marlins and New York Mets Latest Matches
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Miami Marlins against New York Mets : Head to Head (H2H)
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Miami Marlins - New York Mets Key Points
- The Over is 3-2 in the Marlins' last 5 home games
- The Over is 2-3 in the Mets' last 5 away games
- The Marlins are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games
- The Mets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 away games
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Our Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction
The Mets have mixed in younger outfield options such as Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing and Nick Morabito, but the immediate problem is run creation. When Soto is pitched around or kept quiet, the lineup has not consistently found another answer.
Sunday's probable starters make this matchup tighter than the series score suggests. Christian Scott is listed for the Mets, a right-hander who carries a 0-3 record and 4.12 ERA on the season but has shown improved form in recent starts. Miami is expected to turn to reliever Tyler Phillips, who has been effective out of the bullpen with 27 strikeouts in 2026. That gives the Marlins the stronger recent form and the cleaner home setup, though the Mets still have enough individual talent to avoid being written off.
Injury-wise, the Mets have had several roster complications, with A.J. Minter (lat surgery), Jared Young (knee meniscus) and Jorge Polanco (wrist and Achilles) all on the injured list. Miami's recent injury news included Robby Snelling hitting the bench following Tommy John surgery. With Miami getting better pitching, sharper defense and more timely contact, the Marlins hold the upper hand. Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: Under 8.5 runs.
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