Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks - MLB

USA - MLB

Miami Marlins
5/24/26 13:40
New York Mets

Prediction:

 

Under 8.5 points

-105
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 by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet today at LoanDepot Park, with Miami chasing a sweep and New York trying to stop another damaging slide inside the NL East. The Marlins have taken control of the series by doing something simple but hard to sustain: they have pitched cleanly and converted just enough offense. Friday's 2-1 win came behind Eury Perez, who held the Mets to two hits across 6 1/3 innings while Owen Caissie drove in both Miami runs. Saturday brought a stronger follow-up, as Max Meyer struck out eight over seven dominant innings in a 4-1 win that clinched the series.

That two-game stretch is exactly what Miami needed after entering the weekend on a three-game losing streak. The Marlins are not built to overpower opponents every night, but they can be dangerous when their starters control traffic and the defense supports them. Jakob Marsee's work in center field on Friday saved extra bases, and Miami's bullpen protected narrow leads without allowing the Mets to build pressure. The Marlins have also received timely production from Liam Hicks, whose two-homer game Saturday gave the lineup a rare jolt.

The Mets are going the other direction. New York has dropped four of their last five and has looked particularly flat at the plate in Miami. Juan Soto's long homer Friday was the only real damage against Perez, and Saturday's offense did not produce a run until the ninth inning.

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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
10 Miami Marlins
0.525 99 52 47
27 New York Mets
0.414 99 41 58

Miami Marlins and New York Mets Latest Matches

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins Latest matches
W L L L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 23, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  1
New York Mets

May 22, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
New York Mets

May 21, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
3 :  9
Atlanta Braves

May 20, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
1 :  9
Atlanta Braves

May 19, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  8
Atlanta Braves

May 18, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
12 :  0
Atlanta Braves
W L L L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

May 23, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  1
New York Mets

May 22, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
New York Mets

May 21, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
3 :  9
Atlanta Braves

May 20, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
1 :  9
Atlanta Braves

May 19, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  8
Atlanta Braves

May 18, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
12 :  0
Atlanta Braves
L W L L W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

May 17, 2026 - MLB

Tampa Bay Rays
6 :  3
Miami Marlins

May 16, 2026 - MLB

Tampa Bay Rays
5 :  10
Miami Marlins

May 15, 2026 - MLB

Tampa Bay Rays
7 :  2
Miami Marlins

May 14, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
9 :  1
Miami Marlins

May 13, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
5 :  9
Miami Marlins

May 12, 2026 - MLB

Minnesota Twins
3 :  0
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
New York Mets Latest matches
W L L W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

May 23, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  1
New York Mets

May 22, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
New York Mets

May 21, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
1 :  2
New York Mets

May 20, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
8 :  4
New York Mets

May 19, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
9 :  6
New York Mets

May 18, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
7 :  16
New York Mets
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

May 17, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
7 :  6
New York Yankees

May 16, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
6 :  3
New York Yankees

May 15, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
2 :  5
New York Yankees

May 14, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
9 :  4
Detroit Tigers

May 13, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
3 :  2
Detroit Tigers

May 12, 2026 - MLB

New York Mets
10 :  2
Detroit Tigers
W L L W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

May 23, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  1
New York Mets

May 22, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
New York Mets

May 21, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
1 :  2
New York Mets

May 20, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
8 :  4
New York Mets

May 19, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
9 :  6
New York Mets

May 18, 2026 - MLB

Washington Nationals
7 :  16
New York Mets

Miami Marlins against New York Mets : Head to Head (H2H)

Miami Marlins

67 %

New York Mets

33 %

May 23, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
4 :  1
New York Mets

May 22, 2026 - MLB

Miami Marlins
2 :  1
New York Mets

Mar 22, 2026 - MLB Spring Training

Miami Marlins
4 :  3
New York Mets

Mar 17, 2026 - MLB Spring Training

Miami Marlins
5 :  5
New York Mets

Mar 13, 2026 - MLB Spring Training

New York Mets
0 :  1
Miami Marlins

Mar 9, 2026 - MLB Spring Training

New York Mets
9 :  0
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks

Miami Marlins - New York Mets Key Points

  1. The Over is 3-2 in the Marlins' last 5 home games
  2. The Over is 2-3 in the Mets' last 5 away games
  3. The Marlins are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games
  4. The Mets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 away games
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Our Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

The Mets have mixed in younger outfield options such as Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing and Nick Morabito, but the immediate problem is run creation. When Soto is pitched around or kept quiet, the lineup has not consistently found another answer.

Sunday's probable starters make this matchup tighter than the series score suggests. Christian Scott is listed for the Mets, a right-hander who carries a 0-3 record and 4.12 ERA on the season but has shown improved form in recent starts. Miami is expected to turn to reliever Tyler Phillips, who has been effective out of the bullpen with 27 strikeouts in 2026. That gives the Marlins the stronger recent form and the cleaner home setup, though the Mets still have enough individual talent to avoid being written off.

Injury-wise, the Mets have had several roster complications, with A.J. Minter (lat surgery), Jared Young (knee meniscus) and Jorge Polanco (wrist and Achilles) all on the injured list. Miami's recent injury news included Robby Snelling hitting the bench following Tommy John surgery. With Miami getting better pitching, sharper defense and more timely contact, the Marlins hold the upper hand. Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: Under 8.5 runs.

Prediction:

 

Under 8.5 points

-105
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