Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud Prediction & Picks - ATP Australian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Australian Open Picks
Three-time Grand Slam finalist Casper Ruud opens his campaign in Melbourne against Mattia Bellucci of Italy in the first round of the 2026 Australian Open.
Recommended Pick: Mattia Bellucci +5.5 Games
Potential Payout: $200 per $100 bet.
Current Form:
Ruud has had a rough buildup for the Australian Open, having won only one out of three matches during the warmup tournaments. Ranked No.13 in the world, Ruud will attempt to get past the fourth round in Melbourne for the first time in his career, hopefully surpassing his fourth-round finish in 2021.
Bellucci also went 1-2 during the warmups, reaching the second round of the ASB Classic after beating Geoffrey Blancaneaux 6-3, 6-2. The Italian lost in the next round to Hamed Medjedovic 3-6, 2-6. Bellucci is averaging 8.7 aces per game and winning 81 percent of his first serves in 2026. However, he has only created 14 break point chances, converting five for a 35.7 percent break point conversion rate.
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Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud Form
Mattia Bellucci and Casper Ruud Latest Matches
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Jan 10, 2026 - ASB Classic
Jan 9, 2026 - ASB Classic
Jan 2, 2026 - Brisbane International
Oct 25, 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
Oct 18, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 13, 2025 - Brussels Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Jan 14, 2026 - ASB Classic
Jan 4, 2026 - United Cup
Jan 3, 2026 - United Cup
Oct 29, 2025 - Rolex Paris Masters
Oct 23, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Oct 22, 2025 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Mattia Bellucci - Casper Ruud Key Points
- Mattia Bellucci reached the second round of the 2026 ASB Classic.
- Mattia Bellucci is winning 81 percent of his first serves.
- Casper Ruud is 1-2 in 3 matches in 2026.
- Casper Ruud has saved 15 of 20 break points in 2026.
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Our Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Casper Ruud grinds out a four-set win 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4
Reason: I still believe Ruud will find a way to gut out a win over Bellucci despite his recent struggles. Ruud is a streaky player. He is the kind of player who needs to string up a win or two to get hot. This means Bellucci can test Ruud in the early going and perhaps steal the first set. Now, does Bellucci have the form to sustain this early gain? I don’t think so. But I feel he can still present Ruud troubles throughout the match before fizzling out down the stretch.
Our betting prediction for Casper Ruud vs. Mattia Bellucci: Mattia Bellucci +5.5 GamesAll tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
