Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Prediction & Picks - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
ATP - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Monte Carlo Masters Picks
Hot off a 6-0, 6-0 win over Daniil Medvedev, a seasoned Matteo Berrettini (+120) looks to give Joao Fonseca (-150) a lesson or two on clay as they clash in the third round of the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters.
Momentum: Joao Fonseca blazed through to the third round of the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters with a three-set win over Arthur Rinderknech 7-5, 4-6, 6-3. Fonseca, who swept Gabriel Diallo 6-2, 6-3 in the first round, held all his serves and broke the Frenchman three times to secure the win. He’s facing Matteo Berrettini, who double-bagelled the world’s No.7 Daniil Medvedev 6-0, 6-0 in the second round.
Matchup: Berrettini delivered a clinical win over Fonseca 6-1, 7-6 in their first meeting at the 2024 Davis Cup. Berrettini carries an impressive 110-50 record or a 68 percent win rate on clay, while Fonseca owns a 40-27 record or a 59.7 percent win rate on the dirt.
Hot on the Board: Caesars Sportsbook expects a tight contest on Thursday with Fonseca coming out a -150 favorite and Berrettini a +120 underdog. The spread is basically a pick’em at 1.5 games, while the over/under is set at 23.5 points.
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Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Form
Matteo Berrettini and Joao Fonseca Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 8, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 31, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 22, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 19, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 6, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 8, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 19, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 10, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Matteo Berrettini - Joao Fonseca Key Points
- Matteo Berrettini delivers a 6-0, 6-0 win over Daniil Medvedev
- Matteo Berrettini has faced only two breakpoints at the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters
- Joao Fonseca has faced 12 breakpoints at the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters
- Joao Fonseca lost to Matteo Berrettini in straight sets at the 2024 Davis Cup
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Our Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Matteo Berrettini schools Joao Fonseca 6-4, 7-6
Best Pick: Matteo Berrettini Win
Berrettini is coming off a morale-boosting double bagel victory over Daniil Medvedev. Fonseca certainly impressed in his win over a much more seasoned player, Arthur Rinderknech, but the Italian looked unplayable in his destruction of the world’s No. 7.
Berrettini is an exceptional clay-court player who boasts a 68 percent win rate on the surface. Fonseca might be the poster boy of ATP’s next wave of promising stars, but the Italian is armed with the tools and experience to squash all the hype surrounding Fonseca.
has only faced and saved two breakpoints while converting 67 percent of his breakpoint chances in this tournament. Fonseca hasn’t dropped a set in Monte Carlo, but he had to fend off 12 breakpoints to keep his slate clean.
Our betting prediction for Matteo Berrettini vs. Joao Fonseca: Matteo Berrettini win
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