Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open
ATP - ATP Italian Open
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by Bradley Gibbs | in ATP Italian Open Picks
On Sunday, at the ATP event in Rome, Matteo Arnaldi will continue attempting to impress in front of a home crowd, a crowd that has so far driven him to achieve two very pleasing wins. Having beaten Alex De Minaur last time out, the Italian, who is currently ranked outside the top 100, should be feeling confident ahead of this match. Unfortunately for the home-court player, Rafael Jodar is probably tennis' fastest rising star, and what a star he is. We're probably talking about a top-10 player, one who could very easily make light work of this.
After recently impressing in both Barcelona and Madrid, reaching the semi finals and quarter finals, Jodar, who has quickly risen to be ranked 34 in the world, made light work of beating Nuno Borges first time out in Rome, delivering a performance that suggests he ought to brush Arnaldi aside. Looking at the early lines, he's worth betting on to do just that.
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Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Form
Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
May 8, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 6, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 20, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 11, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 5, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 8, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 29, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 28, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 26, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 24, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 22, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar Key Points
- Matteo Arnaldi endured a very tough three-set match last time out and may not have a full tank left.
- Rafael Jodar has a relatively easy straight-set win during the last round, so should have plenty left in the tank.
- Rafael Jodar has won each of his last two clay-court matches against lower-ranked players in straight sets.
- Rafael Jodar recently beat the player Arnaldi just scrapped to beat in three sets in straight sets.
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Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Prediction
Matteo Arnaldi will certainly be bouyed by his win over Alex De Minaur, but he's now endured back-to-back three-set matches, and that means he's likely to be less fresh than Rafael Jodar, who breezed through his first assignment in the Italian capital, where he is once again looking strong. The Spaniard is in hot form and his recent record in matches like this is very difficult to ignore.
If we also look how each player performed against Alex De Minaur recently, with Jodar completing that job far more fluently, then it is rather easy to envisage the Spaniard coming out on top without much of a fuss.
Our Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Pick: Rafael Jodar to Win 2-0.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
