Marta Kostyuk vs Caty McNally Prediction & Picks - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Prediction published on 4/27/26, 9:32 AM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 4/27/26 at 4:04 PM in Tennis Picks

Playing her best stretch of tennis on clay, Marta Kostyuk is in a tremendous position to smash a -5.5-game handicap against Caty McNally in the fourth round of the 2026 Madrid Open.

Momentum: Marta Kostyuk continued to roll in Madrid, pulling off her biggest win this year against the world’s No.5 Jessica Pegula 6-1, 6-4. Kostyuk, who is fresh off a title run in Rouen, has claimed six consecutive victories on clay, establishing herself as a darkhorse contender in this WTA 1000 event.

From one surprise entrant to another, Cathy McNally also made it to the round of 16 with a three-set victory over Katerina Siniakova 6-3, 2-6, 7-6. Hot off a stunning win over the world’s No.10 Victoria Mboko in the second round, McNally dug deep from her bag of tricks to outlast Siniakova in the third-set tiebreaker. Ranked No.76 in the world, McNally is 4-2 on clay and 9-8 on the 2026 WTA season.

The Matchup: Marta Kostyuk defeated Cathy McNally 2-6, 6-2, 6-1 in three sets in Rouen two weeks ago. Kostyuk rebounded from a lackluster opening set by playing aggressively in the next two frames, allowing the American to score only three games after the first set.

Hot on the Board: Caesars Sportsbooks has established Kostyuk as a massive favorite in this match at -700 moneyline and -130 to cover -5.5 games. McNally, who has already earned a top-10 win in this tournament, carries a +400 moneyline price and a -110 with a +5.5 game cushion on the spread line.