Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open

Prediction published on 5/8/26, 1:20 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 5/10/26 at 11:39 PM in ATP Italian Open Picks

Lorenzo Musetti will attempt to destroy a -4.5-game handicap against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who is set to play only his second match on clay this year, in the second round of the 2026 Italian Open.

Momentum: After an uneventful five-week campaign on clay, Lorenzo Musetti sets his sights on better results in Rome, which serves as the last big tournament before the French Open. Musetti sports a 4-3 record on clay, reaching the quarterfinals in Barcelona and the fourth round at the Madrid Masters.

Meanwhile, big-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard opened his 2026 clay-court swing campaign with a win over Jacob Fearnley 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 in the first round of the Italian Open. The victory snapped Perricard’s three-match losing streak and improved his overall record this year to 8-9.

The Matchup: Musetti boasts a 4-1 record over Perricard in their head-to-head series. The Frenchman, however, won the most recent meeting 6-4, 7-6 at the 2025 ATP Brussels Open. This is the first time they will play each other on clay.

Hot on the Board: Lorenzo Musetti comes out of the gates as the clear-cut favorite of this match with a value of -700 on the moneyline. The Italian offers a far more compelling price on the spread market, being listed at +115 to cover -4.5 games. For risk takers out there, Perricard is a rewarding pick at +400, while the Under 21.5 games also positions itself as an enticing option at +100.