Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction & Picks - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
WTA - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Catching a +4.5-game cushion, Laura Siegemund is in a terrific spot to cover the spread against the skidding Jasmine Paolini in the second round of the 2026 Madrid Open.
Current Form:
Jasmine Paolini entered the Madrid Open in terrible shape, compiling a 9-8 record on the tour and losing her first match on clay against Zeynep Sonmez at the 2026 Stuttgart Open. Paolini remains in the top-10 of the world rankings at No.9, but the pressure is certainly piling up as she’s about to defend big points in the next two tournaments ahead of the French Open.
After back-to-back second-round finishes in Linz and Stuttgart, Laura Siegemund hopes she can take her campaign further in Madrid. The German hurdled the first test, beating Irina-Camelia Begu in straight sets 6-4, 6-0.
Hot on the Board: Siegemund will have a +4.5-game cushion (-115) on the spreadline in this match. Paolini, still a strong bet to win at -340, must win by at least five games against an opponent she defeated 2 out of 3 times in the past to cover the 4.5-game spread (-125).
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Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Form
Laura Siegemund and Jasmine Paolini Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 21, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 15, 2026 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Apr 13, 2026 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Mar 19, 2026 - WTA Miami
Mar 17, 2026 - WTA Miami
Mar 7, 2026 - WTA Indian Wells
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 15, 2026 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Apr 10, 2026 - Billie Jean King Cup
Mar 22, 2026 - WTA Miami
Mar 20, 2026 - WTA Miami
Mar 10, 2026 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2026 - WTA Indian Wells
Laura Siegemund against Jasmine Paolini : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
Oct 13, 2023 - Zhengzhou Open
Laura Siegemund - Jasmine Paolini Key Points
- Laura Siegemund has 13 top-10 wins in her career
- Laura Siegemund owns a 64 percent win rate on clay.
- Jasmine Paolini is 9-8 on the 2026 WTA season.
- Jasmine Paolini lost to Zeynep Sonmez 2-6, 2-6 at the 2026 Stuttgart Open
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Our Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Jasmine Paolini survives Laura Siegemund 6-3, 5-7, 6-3
I still like Paolini’s chances to advance to the next round despite her shaky campaign this year. Paolini would have been an easy pick to cover -4.5 games against a solid clay-court player in Siegemund. However, the Italian clearly doesn’t have the form to pull off such a dominant win against the crafty German.
Siegemund, who scored six breakpoint conversions against Irina-Begu, has an opportunity here to take the fight to Paolini and see if the Italian can handle the pressure well this time. With 13 top-10 wins under her belt and a respectable 64 percent win rate on clay, Siegemund has the tools and the credentials to give this version of Paolini a run for her money.
Our betting prediction for Laura Siegemund vs. Jasmine Paolini: Laura Siegemund +4.5 Games
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