Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina Prediction & Picks - WTA Rome
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
An intriguing pick to cover the +5.5 spread line, Karolina Pliskova earns another opportunity to play Elena Rybakina in the fourth round of the 2026 Italian Open.
Pliskova has never beaten Rybakina in four meetings, though she has only lost by more 5 games only once in these meetings.
Current Form:
Former world’s No.1 Karolina Pliskova continued her comeback run this season after claiming another impressive win over Laura Siegemund 6-4, 6-1. The win moved Pliskova one win away from matching her quarterfinal finish in Madrid a week ago.
Looking to end Pliskova’s campaign in Rome is former champion and world’s No.2 Elena Rybakina, who fended off a spirited challenge from Alexandra Eala in a competitive two-set encounter, 6-4, 6-3. Rybakina improved to 8-1 on the clay this year, having claimed a title at Stuttgart and reached the fourth round in Madrid.
The Matchup: Rybakina is 4-0 in four meetings with Pliskova. The Kazakh has never dropped a set against Pliskova in their head-to-head meetings, though Monday’s fourth-round clash will mark the first time they will play against each other on red dirt.
Hot on the Board: Rybakina is a massive favorite at -900 moneyline and -125 to cover -5.5 games against the former world’s No.1. Posted at +500 moneyline, Pliskova will need a big step in her game to have a chance at a first career win over Rybakina. Pliskova sits at -115 to cover +5.5 line while the over/under is pegged at 19.5 games.
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Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina Form
Karolina Pliskova and Elena Rybakina Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 10, 2026 - WTA Rome
May 8, 2026 - WTA Rome
May 6, 2026 - WTA Rome
Apr 29, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 27, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 26, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 10, 2026 - WTA Rome
May 8, 2026 - WTA Rome
Apr 27, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 26, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 24, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 19, 2026 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Karolina Pliskova against Elena Rybakina : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
Jan 16, 2024 - WTA Australian Open
Karolina Pliskova - Elena Rybakina Key Points
- Karolina Pliskova is 0-4 vs. Elena Rybakina
- Karolina Pliskova only lost to Elena Rybakina by more 5 games once in their head-to-head series
- Elena Rybakina is 0-3 in breakpoint situations in 2026.
- Elena Rybakina is 3-1 in fourth round matches
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Our Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina Prediction
Pliskova is coming into her fifth career showdown with Rybakina with plenty of experience playing high-caliber opponents under her belt. The Czech owns an impressive 22-26 record against top-5 players and a staggering 20-5 record in fourth-round matches.
Rybakina has never lost to a player ranked outside the top-100 this year, but she definitely understands that the 130th-ranked Pliskova is a lot better than her ranking suggests. Again, Rybakina has never lost to Pliskova in their four previous meetings. However, the Kazakh only defeated Pliskova by more than five games once in these matchups. That happened three years ago in the round of 16 of the 2023 Abu Dhabi Open, where Rybakina cruised to a 6-4, 6-2.
There’s no doubt Rybakina remains a confident pick to win this match. But again, Pliskova has demonstrated terrific form this year, especially over the last three weeks on clay. Rybakina has only faced three breakpoints in Rome, but she failed to save all of them. As for Pliskova, she has saved 23 of 34 break points in this tournament while converting 16 of 45 break point chances for a 45 percent conversion rate.
Rybakina cannot afford to let Pliskova build confidence during their match, as the Czech can put her in a difficult spot by racking up points in a hurry. Regardless, Rybakina still looks primed to advance, but not before grinding out a tough win over Pliskova.
Our betting prediction for Elena Rybakina vs. Karolina Pliskova: Karolina Pliskova +5.5 Games
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