Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
couple of months ago. These two players face off again in the third round of the 2026 Madrid Open, making the Over 23.5 games the sharp play for this match.
Momentum: Jakub Mensik opened his clay-court campaign with a straight-set win over Martin Damm Jr., 6-3, 6-2 in the second round. The world’s No.27 skipped the Monte Carlo Masters and missed other key clay-court tournaments because of a right toe injury.
Karen Khachanov is another player who will try to build momentum in this tournament after crashing out in the opening match of his first two clay-court tournaments. Khachanov rolled to a 6-2, 6-3 win over Adam Walton in the second round.
Hot on the Board: Khachanov is listed as a +120 underdog, even though he won his first two matches against Mensik. Mensik is a -150 favorite, and the spread is set at a razor-thin 1.5 games.
Head-to-head edge: Khachanov is 2-0 vs. Mensik on the tour. The Russian defeated the young Czech on two occasions, scoring a 7-6, 6-4 win at the 2024 Qatar Open and a three-set grinder 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 at the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
Performance vs. Top-20 in 2026: Mensik won 2 out of 3 matches against top-20 players on the ATP Tour this year, while Khachanov lost his only match against a player ranked inside the top-20 this year. That match was against Carlos Alcaraz in Doha.
Superior Record in 2026: Mensik might not be playing as well as he did in the early part of 2025, but he has compiled a respectable 16-6 record on the tour this year. Khachanov played only 17 matches on tour, winning 8.
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Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Form
Karen Khachanov and Jakub Mensik Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 6, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 22, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Mar 23, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 21, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 8, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 6, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 26, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
Karen Khachanov against Jakub Mensik : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
Mar 8, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 24, 2024 - ATP Qatar Open
Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik Key Points
- Karen Khachanov is 2-0 vs. Jakub Mensik on the tour.
- Jakub Mensik is 2-1 vs. top-20 players on the ATP Tour in 2026
- Karen Khachanov is 8-9 in 2026
- Jakub Mensik owns a 58 percent win rate on clay
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Our Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Prediction
Smart Play (Total Over 23.5 Games): The last meeting between Khachanov and Mensik needed three sets to determine the winner. Expect the same case for this match, as both players scramble to rebuild their confidence with a few weeks left before the French Open. Khachanov is looking like an enticing underdog bet because of his two previous wins in the series, but he must bring his A-game to claim a third consecutive win over a vastly improving Mensik.
Khachanov and Mensik also held all their serves in their opening-round matches in Madrid, each facing only two breakpoints. This augurs well for another three-set contest on Monday, as both players appear hard to break in the high-altitude conditions in Madrid.
betting prediction for Karen Khachanov vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Over 23.5 Games.
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