Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction & Picks - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
WTA - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Over 21.5 games is a strong pick in this match between two recent clay-court champions: Charleston Open winner Jessica Pegula and Rouen Open titlist Marta Kostyuk.
Current Form:
Jessica Pegula will put her six-match win streak on the line on Sunday against Marta Kostyuk in a showdown of two champions in this year’s clay-court swing. Pegula, who ruled the Charleston Open, extended his winning run with a hard-earned win over Katie Boulter 6-4, 6-4. Pegula, who commands a 25-4 record this season, opened the betting lines at -145 and -120 to cover 1.5 games.
Kostyuk has also been red-hot lately, winning her last seven matches (including a single win at the Billie Jean King Cup). Kostyuk ruled the WTA 250 Rouen after sweeping Veronika Podrez 6-3, 6-4 in an all-Ukrainian final. She carried over that momentum to Madrid, where she obliterated Yulia Putintseva 6-1, 6-3. Caesars Sportsbook has Kostyuk listed as a +115 underdog, as bookmakers begin to take the Ukrainian’s surging form on clay seriously.
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Form
Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk Latest Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Apr 24, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 5, 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
Apr 4, 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
Apr 3, 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
Apr 2, 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
Apr 1, 2026 - WTA Charleston Open
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Apr 24, 2026 - WTA Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 19, 2026 - WTA Rouen
Apr 18, 2026 - WTA Rouen
Apr 17, 2026 - WTA Rouen
Apr 15, 2026 - WTA Rouen
Apr 14, 2026 - WTA Rouen
Jessica Pegula against Marta Kostyuk : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
Jan 10, 2026 - WTA Brisbane
Oct 1, 2025 - WTA China Open
Mar 24, 2025 - WTA Miami
Mar 2, 2024 - WTA San Diego Open
Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk Key Points
- Marta Kostyuk is 86-41 on clay.
- Marta Kostyuk is 3-3 vs. top-10 players in 2026.
- Jessica Pegula owns a 134-79 record on clay.
- Jessica Pegula is 15-1 against players ranked outside the WTA top-100 in 2026
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Our Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Jessica Pegula outguns Marta Kostyuk 3-6, 7-5, 7-6
The Edge: Marta Kostyuk poses a legitimate danger to Jessica Pegula’s run in Madrid because of her sizzling form recently. Kostyuk, who converted 7 breakpoints in her match with Putintseva, also had a ton of success converting breakpoint chances during her run in Rouen, where she registered a 59.2 percent conversion rate. Pegula won Charleston by winning only 66 percent of her first balls and saving 67 percent of breakpoints, which are strong numbers but clearly not as dominant as the figures Kostyuk produced in her last event.
The Bet: The total Over 21.5 games. Pegula is the favorite on paper, but this version of Kostyuk can deal a lot of damage, not only in this match but for the rest of this tournament if she can advance. Nevertheless, Pegula’s big-match experience could be the difference-maker in this ballgame. In a match that is shaping up to be as tight as this one, the next best available play here is to go for the Over at 21.5 games (-125). Pegula would still be a profitable pick at -145 moneyline, but few would argue that taking the OVER is a much safer option in a match like this.
Our betting prediction for Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Over 21.5 Games
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
