Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction & Picks - WTA Berlin Open
WTA - WTA Berlin Open
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by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks
Madison Keys aims for an upset against Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinal of the 2026 Berlin Ladies Open on Thursday.
Current Form:
Madison Keys reached the quarterfinals of the 2026 Berlin Open after trouncing both Xinyu Wang 7-6, 6-1 and Karolina Muchova 6-4, 7-5 in straight sets.
Jessica Pegula made quick work of Katerina Siniakova 6-2, 6-4 to reach the last eight in Berlin. Ranked No.4 and seeded No.3 in this star-studded tournament, Pegula will try to break a 2-2 deadlock with Keys in their head-to-head series.
Matchup: Caesars Sportsbooks has made Pegula (-135) the favorite ahead of her fifth career showdown and first meeting on grass with Keys.
However, after witnessing Keys’ performance in the first two rounds, the sportsbooks did not feel it necessary to give the former Australian Open champion a sizeable cushion in the spread market for this particular match.
Instead, Caesars set the spread at the slimmest possible margin - 0.5 games- in anticipation of a tight contest.
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Form
Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jun 17, 2026 - WTA Berlin Open
May 26, 2026 - WTA French Open
May 13, 2026 - WTA Rome
May 11, 2026 - WTA Rome
May 10, 2026 - WTA Rome
May 8, 2026 - WTA Rome
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jun 18, 2026 - WTA Berlin Open
Jun 16, 2026 - WTA Berlin Open
Jun 1, 2026 - WTA French Open
May 30, 2026 - WTA French Open
May 28, 2026 - WTA French Open
May 26, 2026 - WTA French Open
Jessica Pegula against Madison Keys : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Jan 25, 2026 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 11, 2025 - WTA Adelaide
Sep 4, 2023 - WTA US Open
Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys Key Points
- Jessica Pegula is 2-2 vs. Madison Keys
- Madison Keys owns a 71 percent win rate on grass.
- Jessica Pegula owns a 59 percent win rate on grass.
- Madison Keys has 15 top-5 wins in her career.
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Our Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Madison Keys upends Jessica Pegula in three sets 6-4, 3-6, 7-5
Expect another explosive encounter between two of the United States’ top women’s singles players.
Everybody expects Pegula to come into the match as the favorite because of her high placement in the world rankings and the fact that she beat Keys in their last meeting at the Australian Open in January.
Keys will walk onto the grass court of Berlin as a much bigger threat, boasting an impressive 56-22 record on grass (71.6 percent win rate).
Pegula will always be a tough opponent on any surface because of the caliber she brings. However, Keys appears more dangerous and prepared for the tough battle ahead, especially after passing her first big test in this tournament by beating the world’s No. 10, Karolina Muchova, in the second round.
Our betting prediction for Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys: Madison Keys will win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
