Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
Lorenzo Musetti pops out as an alluring pick at -2.5 games (-210) against Hubert Hurkacz in the second round of the 2026 Madrid Open.
Current Form: Lorenzo Musetti recovered from a second-round flameout in Monte Carlo after reaching the quarterfinals of the 2026 Barcelona Open. The Italian picked up straight-set wins over Martin Landaluce and Corentin Moutet before falling to the eventual winner, Arthur Fils, 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinals.
Hurkacz also arrived in Madrid, aiming to build on his round-of-16 appearance in Monte Carlo. Hurkacz secured his spot in the second round of the 2026 Madrid Open after trouncing Jaime Faria 6-3, 6-3.
Hot on the Board: Already a solid wager at -200 moneyline, Musetti jumps off as a more appetizing pick at -120 to cover -2.5 games. Hurkacz offers a more lucrative price at +150 moneyline, but he only has a slim chance of pulling off an upset against an elite-level clay-court player like Musetti.
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Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Form
Hubert Hurkacz and Lorenzo Musetti Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 22, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 8, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 19, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 5, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 17, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 16, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 8, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 6, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Jan 25, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Hubert Hurkacz against Lorenzo Musetti : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
Jul 7, 2023 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti Key Points
- Lorenzo Musetti reached the quarterfinals of the 2026 Barcelona Open
- Lorenzo Musetti owns a 66 percent win rate on clay
- Hubert Hurkacz owns a 64 percent win rate on clay
- Hubert Hurkacz is 2-3 vs. top-20 players in 2026
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Our Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
The Bet: Get on Musetti at -2.5 Games. It might not be the start the Italian would want to have for this year’s clay-court season, but reaching the quarterfinals and holding his ground against the red-hot Arthur Fils in Barcelona is already a promising sign for Musetti as he kicks off his campaign in Madrid.
Hurkacz, who scored 12 aces in his win over Jaime Faria, will always pose problems because of his massive serves. However, Musetti is a much more capable returner on clay, even against servbots like Hurkacz. One-dimensional big servers don’t usually translate well on clay because their serves don’t travel as fast as they do on hard courts and grass. Musetti only converted 4 of 9 breakpoint chances across three matches in Barcelona, but I expect him to find more success in that area with every match he plays on clay.
Our betting prediction for Hubert Hurkacz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Lorenzo Musetti -2.5 Games
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