Felix Auger Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction & Picks - ATP French Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP French Open Picks
Brandon Nakashima made it to the third round of the French Open for the second time after clawing back from a set down to beat Luca Van Assche 6-7, 6-4, 5-7, 6-1, 6-3.
Nakashima, who improved to 5-4 on clay this year, is winning 80 percent of his first balls and converting 57 percent of breakpoints (12/21) at the 2026 Roland Garros.
After surviving a five-set thriller against Daniel Altmaier, Felix Auger-Aliassime completed yet another comeback, topping Roman Andres Burruchaga in four sets 4-6, 6-0, 7-5, 6-1.
Auger-Aliassime is winning 77.8 percent of his first balls in this tournament. The Canadian has also saved 14 of 21 breakpoints and converted 13 of 22 break chances.
Matchup: Nakashima will play Auger-Aliassime for the first time since losing to the Canadian in Florence in 2022.
On paper, Auger-Aliassime seems poised to dominate this matchup because of his top-10 status and 1-0 head-to-head record against Nakashima. However, Nakashima’s exceptional serving in the past two rounds makes him a tricky opponent for the Canadian, who is only 7-7 against players in the top-50 in 2026.
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Felix Auger Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Form
Felix Auger Aliassime and Brandon Nakashima Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 28, 2026 - ATP French Open
May 26, 2026 - ATP French Open
May 20, 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
May 19, 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
May 9, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 27, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 28, 2026 - ATP French Open
May 25, 2026 - ATP French Open
May 11, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 9, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 16, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Felix Auger Aliassime against Brandon Nakashima : Head to Head (H2H)
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Oct 14, 2022 - Florence, Italy, Qualifying
Felix Auger Aliassime - Brandon Nakashima Key Points
- Brandon Nakashima is winning 80.8 percent of his first serves at the 2026 Roland Garros.
- Brandon Nakashima has saved 5 of 8 breakpoints at the 2026 Roland Garros.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has already dropped 3 sets in two matches at the 2026 Roland Garros.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime is 7-7 vs. top-50 players in 2026.
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Our Felix Auger Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction
Felix Auger-Aliassime may still end up in the fourth round, but he’s certainly not going to blow by this version of Brandon Nakashima.
Nakashima has overpowered his first two opponents with his potent serve-plus-one game, and there’s a good chance he will continue to serve this well in his upcoming match with Auger-Aliassime, who has been tested in the first two rounds.
Nakashima dropped only 3 service games after 8 sets at Roland Garros, while Auger-Aliassime has already conceded 7 service games out of 21 breakpoints he faced in this tournament.
This fantastic serving form should enable Nakashima to put up a good fight against Auger-Aliassime and come away with at least a win against the spread.
Our betting prediction for Brandon Nakashima vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Brandon Nakashima +4.5 Games
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