Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik Prediction & Picks - ATP Geneva Open
ATP - ATP Geneva Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
1-4 in his last five matches, Alexander Bublik finds himself in a difficult spot against an inspired Edas Butvilas in the second round of the 2026 Geneva Open. Caesars Sportsbook prices Butvilas at +100 to cover +3.5 games.
Bublik has gone 1-3 since the straight-set beatdown he suffered from Carlos Alcaraz in Monte Carlo.
A quarterfinalist at last year’s Roland Garros, Bublik hopes he can rebuild his confidence in Geneva before competing in the second Grand Slam of the year.
Caesars Sportsbook has priced Bublik as an overwhelming favorite in his second-round match against Edas Butvilas, who entered the main draw as a qualifier.
Butvilas earned the chance to test his mettle against a top-10 player after picking up wins over Alexander Muller 6-4, 6-1, and James Duckworth 7-6, 7-6. In the first round, he eliminated Lorenzo Sonego in 16 games by holding his serves and breaking him four times.
The Lithuanian catches +100 odds to cover +3.5-line and +240 on the moneyline. Apart from setting a surprisingly slim spread for this sport, Caesars Sportsbook also pegs the over/under at 21.5 games, which only means the bookmaker is not ruling out the possibility of a three-set match or a tiebreak in one or both sets.
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Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik Form
Edas Butvilas and Alexander Bublik Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 18, 2026 - ATP Geneva Open
May 17, 2026 - ATP Geneva Open
May 16, 2026 - ATP Geneva Open
Aug 18, 2025 - ATP US Open
Jun 23, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
May 19, 2025 - ATP French Open
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
May 10, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 8, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 10, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 9, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Edas Butvilas - Alexander Bublik Key Points
- Edas Butvilas has never played a top-20 player in his career.
- Edas Butvilas is converting 25 percent of break chances in clay-court matches in 2026.
- Alexander Bublik has only faced 30 breakpoints across 7 matches on clay in 2026.
- Alexander Bublik is 3-2 vs. players outside the top-100 in 2026
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Our Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Edas Butvilas impresses in a 6-3, 5-7, 4-6 loss to Alexander Bublik
Best Pick: Take your chance on Edas Butvilas to cover +3.5 games. He may not win his first-ever duel against a top-10 caliber player, but Butvilas can make a strong impression here, especially if his serve game continues to be on point. The Lithuanian has faced and saved only four breakpoints in three matches in Geneva. He also converted 8 out of 23 breakpoint chances he created in just three matches.
Bublik remains an almost shoo-in bet to win this match, but his inconsistency during this year’s clay-court swing leaves him vulnerable even to a player outside the top-100 like Butvilas. Bublik is 3-2 against players not ranked in the top-100 in 2026. He has also converted only 8 of 25 breakpoints on clay, which could hurt him in this match against the suddenly big-serving Butvilas.
Our betting prediction for Alexander Bublik vs. Edas Butvilas: Edas Butvilas +3.5 Games
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