Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open

Prediction published on 5/7/26, 11:00 AM  by Tyler Doty | Modified on 5/7/26 at 4:00 PM in ATP Italian Open Picks

As with every clay-court tournament, Mariano Navone is one to watch closely. The Argentine’s strengths on this surface shine through brilliantly, thanks to a baseline game that has allowed him to excel. After winning in Bucharest in early April, the South American recently pushed Alexander Zverev to the limit in Madrid, proving that the world No. 44 can compete with the best players on the planet. Although Mariano Navone is coming off a first-round loss at the Cagliari Challenger last week, the Argentine is expected to bring much more intensity this week at the Rome Masters 1000, starting right from the first round, where a showdown awaits him against Denis Shapovalov.

A former semifinalist in Rome (2020), the Canadian has been more inconsistent in recent months following an elbow injury that has slowed his progress. It’s now do-or-die for the world No. 37, as evidenced by his recent results, first-round exits in Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid, but also a quarterfinal appearance in Munich. Although he has often been comfortable on clay in the past, Denis Shapovalov won’t be able to afford a slow start against one of the most consistent players on this surface, or he risks an early exit.