Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Prediction & Picks - ATP Indian Wells
ATP - ATP Indian Wells
New customers only | Commercial content | 21+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Lou Aguila | in ATP Indian Wells Picks
Fresh off a massive win over world’s No.1 Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev threatens to challenge the tennis order as he goes for broke against Jannik Sinner in the Indian Wells Open final on Sunday.
Current Form:
Jannik Sinner booked a ticket to his first final on the ATP Tour this year after a surgical straight-set win over Alexander Zverev, 6-2, 6-4. Sinner won 83 percent of his first serves to hold all his serves while breaking the German three times off the back of 20 return points. Sinner, who lost to Novak Djokovic in the semifinal of the 2026 Australian Open and to Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinal of the 2026 Qatar Open, earns a shot at his first title of 2026 and maiden crown in Indian Wells.
Daniil Medvedev will try to become the first player in the past three years to pull off back-to-back wins over the Sincaraz duopoly when he faces Jannik Sinner on Sunday. Medvedev ended Carlos Alcaraz’s winning streak in outdoor hardcourt by coming through with a 6-3, 7-6 win over the reigning world’s No.1. Apart from holding all his serves, Medvedev secured two key breakpoint conversions and outdueled Alcaraz in the second set tiebreaker, handing the Spaniard his first loss in a tiebreaker situation.
Limited Offer. Currently at FanDuel
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Form
Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner Latest Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Mar 14, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 11, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 27, 2026 - ATP Dubai Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 14, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 10, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 6, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 19, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
Daniil Medvedev against Jannik Sinner : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
83 %
Nov 14, 2024 - ATP Finals
Oct 10, 2024 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Sep 4, 2024 - ATP US Open
Jul 9, 2024 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Mar 29, 2024 - ATP Miami
Jan 28, 2024 - ATP Australian Open
Daniil Medvedev - Jannik Sinner Key Points
- Daniil Medvedev is 1-9 vs. Jannik Sinner
- Daniil Medvedev has only dropped one service game at the 2026 Indian Wells Open.
- Jannik Sinner has won 84 percent of his first serves at the 2026 Indian Wells Open.
- Jannik Sinner is 30-11 in championship matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at FanDuel
Our Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Jannik Sinner survives Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 4-6, 7-6
Holding a 9-1 head-to-head record against Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner will walk into Sunday’s final match as a clear-cut favorite, currently priced at -480 on FanDuel. However, the Russian’s spectacular performance at Indian Wells, capped by his victory over Carlos Alcaraz, turns him into a tempting pick to cover at +3.5 games (+140) in the alternative game-spread market.
Medvedev hasn’t won a match against Sinner since ousting the Italian in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Wimbledon Open. Also, the Russian has yet to capture a set under Sinner’s watch since taking the second set in a four-set loss to the Italian at the 2024 US Open. Despite Sinner’s dominance in their recent face-offs, Medvedev poses a legitimate threat to the Italian’s title aspiration in tennis paradise, especially if he continues to hold serves and comes through with timely breakpoint conversion.
After a tumultuous 2025 campaign, it’s safe to say that Medvedev has regained his top form, having already won two titles this year and compiled a 19-3 record on the ATP Tour. Again, Sinner remains a strong bet to win this match, but this version of Medvedev will make him dig deeper than he has ever done in this tournament.
Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner: Daniil Medvedev +3.5 Games (Alternative Game Spread)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
