Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
Daniil Medvedev and Flavio Cobolli clash in the fourth round of the 2026 Madrid Open.
The fast clay courts of Madrid have favored both Medvedev and Coboll well, as both players are producing exceptional numbers on the serve. The total has been set at 22.5 games, with the Over looking like a sharp play for this match.
After his disastrous opening match in Monte Carlo, Daniil Medvedev is starting to build some rhythm on the clay after picking up wins over Fabian Marozsan 6-2, 6-7, 6-4 and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 6-3, 6-2. Caesars Sportsbook lists the former world’s No.1 a generous -130 favorite against a stronger clay-court opponent in the next round.
Fresh off a final appearance in Munich, Flavio Cobolli secured two more wins on the dirt in Madrid, upping his 2026 clay-court record to 7-2. A 61 percent winner on this surface, Cobolli poses to be the strongest opponent Medvedev has faced in this tournament so far, much more accomplished than Marozsan and the young Kjaer. Caesars Sportsbook has placed a +100-underdog tag on Cobolli, who targets his first win against the Russian after losing to him in their first two encounters on the hard court.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Form
Daniil Medvedev and Flavio Cobolli Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 27, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 8, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 23, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 21, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 15, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Apr 27, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 19, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 18, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 17, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Apr 15, 2026 - ATP Munich Open
Daniil Medvedev against Flavio Cobolli : Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
Sep 30, 2024 - ATP Beijing Open
Aug 31, 2024 - ATP US Open
Daniil Medvedev - Flavio Cobolli Key Points
- Flavio Cobolli owns a 61 percent win rate on clay.
- Flavio Cobolli owns a 1-1 record against top-10 opponents.
- Daniil Medvedev sports a 64 percent win rate on clay.
- Daniil Medvedev is winning 76 percent of his first serves at the 2026 Madrid Open.
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Our Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction
Taking into consideration the high-altitude conditions in Madrid, it’s not too ludicrous to say that they are basically playing on a hard court disguised as powdery red dirt. The 2026 Madrid Open is the only tournament on the clay-court calendar that gives big-hitters like Medvedev a significant advantage because the ball hits harder here than on any other clay courts.
Statistics show that Medvedev is enjoying a field day in the Spanish Capital as he has only faced five breakpoints and won 76.9 percent of his first serves in two matches. Cobolli, on the other hand, saved the only two breakpoints he faced in this tournament so far and converted 5 of 12 break chances. Cobolli would have been a more enticing underdog pick to win on any random clay court outside Madrid, but he must accept the fact that he will be receiving harder serves and faster strikes from Medvedev in this match. Regardless, this is a coin flip of a match with the winner likely to be decided in three sets.
Our betting prediction for Flavio Cobolli vs. Daniil Medvedev: Over 22.5 Games
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