Christian Garin vs Sebastian Baez Prediction & Picks - ATP Santiago Open
ATP - ATP Santiago Open
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by Bradley Gibbs | in Tennis Picks
On Thursday, there's more ATP action in Santiago, Chile, where Christian Garin and Sebastian Baez will clash, and not for the first time. This is a really interesting match between two former champions of this event. In fact, this is a match between the two players who between them have either won or appeared in the final of four of the last five renewals of this tournament. Baez reached the final last year, which he also did in 2022. In 2024, he won the event, while Christian Garin claimed the trophy back in 2021. In other words, it's fair to say we're talking about a couple of players who know how to play their best tennis in Santiago.
Interestingly, in 2023, which is the only year in the last five that neither of these two players reached the final, the pair met at this event. Baez won in straight sets, but we shouldn't assume that the outcome will be the same here. Garin arrives in decent form, while Baez does not, so this may not be too straightforward for the Argentine.
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Christian Garin vs Sebastian Baez Form
Christian Garin and Sebastian Baez Latest Matches
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Feb 24, 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
Feb 16, 2026 - ATP Rio Open
Jan 19, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 9, 2026 - ASB Classic
Jan 4, 2026 - Hong Kong Open
Aug 20, 2025 - ATP US Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Feb 17, 2026 - ATP Rio Open
Feb 14, 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
Feb 13, 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
Feb 12, 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
Jan 21, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 19, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Christian Garin against Sebastian Baez : Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
Mar 2, 2023 - ATP Santiago Open
Feb 3, 2022 - ATP Cordoba
Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- These two players shared three sets when they met on a clay court in Argentina back in 2022.
- Christian Garin's first match in Santiago contained three sets.
- Three sets have been played in four of Christian Garin's last five clay-court matches.
- Two of Christian Garin's last three clay-court matches against higher-ranked players have contained three sets.
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Our Christian Garin vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
Christian Garin arrives in better form than Baez, and that's crucial. The Chilean is playing really well at present, while he's certainly battling hard, securing each of his last four wins in three sets. Baez has the quality to hurt the Chilean, but as he's not in the best shape, losing two of the four clay-court matches that he's played in 2026, it's easy to see him, at the very least, failing to win this in straight sets.
The pair have shared three sets on a clay court previously, and given Garin's recent three-set habit, a bet on 'Over 2.5 Sets' looks a little generously priced at odds of +150. Take those odds if you're looking for a value tennis pick on Thursday.
Our Christian Garin vs Sebastian Baez Pick: Over 2.5 Sets.
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