Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Picks - ATP Australian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Australian Open Picks
Carlos Alcaraz of Spain will duke it out with Tommy Paul of the United States on Saturday, with the winner advancing to the quarterfinals of the 2026 Australian Open.
Recommended Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 Games
Potential Payout: $215 for every $115 Bet.
Current Form:
Carlos Alcaraz demolished Corentin Moutet to record his third consecutive straight-set win, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1. The Spaniard dropped only two service games and broke Moutet eight times in the two-hour and five-minute match. Alcaraz, who also swept Adam Walton and Yannick Hanfmann, is winning 72 percent of his first balls and averaging 7.7 aces per match at the 2026 Australian Open.
A quarterfinalist at the 2025 Australian Open, Paul gets another crack at the final eight, though to get there, he will have to take down the reigning world’s No.1 in the process. Paul clinched his spot in the round-of-16 after blasting Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1, 6-1 ret. Paul dominated the service battle, winning 90 percent of his first balls and holding 100 percent of his serves.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jan 22, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 20, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 18, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Nov 16, 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
Nov 15, 2025 - ATP London - Queen's
Nov 13, 2025 - ATP Finals
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jan 20, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 18, 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Jan 15, 2026 - Adelaide International
Jan 15, 2026 - Adelaide International
Jan 13, 2026 - Adelaide International
Jan 5, 2026 - Brisbane International
Carlos Alcaraz against Tommy Paul : Head to Head (H2H)
83 %
17 %
Jun 3, 2025 - ATP French Open
Aug 1, 2024 - Olympic Tournament
Jul 9, 2024 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Aug 17, 2023 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 11, 2023 - ATP Toronto
Mar 28, 2023 - ATP Miami
Carlos Alcaraz - Tommy Paul Key Points
- Tommy Paul is 2-5 vs. Carlos Alcaraz.
- Tommy Paul reached the QF of the 2025 Australian Open.
- Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set yet at the 2026 Australian Open.
- Carlos Alcaraz has converted 16 of 32 break-points after three rounds at the 2026 Australian Open.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Carlos Alcaraz breezes past Tommy Paul 6-2, 6-4, 6-2
Reason: Alcaraz looks untouchable right now after demolishing his first three opponents in Melbourne. The Spaniard is dealing heavy damage not only with his new serves but also as a returner, where he has already converted 16 of 32 break-point chances or a 50 percent break-point conversion rate.
Paul has also been sneakily good in this tournament, reaching the round of 16 without losing a set. Paul is winning almost 80 percent of his first balls and converting 51 percent of break-points in three matches in Melbourne. However, Paul understands that he needs to play the match of his career to beat this version of Alcaraz. Paul is 2-5 in seven head-to-head meetings against the Spaniard, and 0-4 in their last four.
Expect Paul to try his best in an attempt to give Alcaraz a challenge on Saturday. However, with the way Carlitos is playing, the mere thought of Paul taking a set from him sounds blasphemous.
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 GamesAll tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
