Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Prediction & Picks - ATP Miami
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Miami Picks
Winning 80 percent of his first serves this season, Sebastian Korda might have a decent shot at covering the spread at +4.5 games against Carlos Alcaraz in the third round of the 2026 Miami Open.
Current Form:
Carlos Alcaraz will try to move closer to another hard-court title as he takes on No.32 seed Sebastian Korda in the third round of the 2026 Miami Open.
Alcaraz bounced back from his semifinal exit at Indian Wells with a statement win over Brazilian rising star Joao Fonseca, 6-4, 6-4. 17-1 on the ATP Tour in 2026, the Spaniard has won the last three duels with Korda and boasts a 4-1 head-to-head series lead over the American.
Meanwhile, Korda cleared his first test in Miami after trouncing Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-0, 6-3. Korda has never played Alcaraz as the world’s No. 1-ranked player, so it would be interesting to see how he performs against the familiar foe. In five head-to-head matches with Alcaraz, Korda has only won two sets, pulling it off in his win over the Spaniard at the 2022 Monte Carlo Masters.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Korda Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 14, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 11, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 20, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 5, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 22, 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
Feb 21, 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
Feb 20, 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
Carlos Alcaraz against Sebastian Korda : Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
May 31, 2024 - ATP French Open
Jun 24, 2023 - ATP London - Queen's
May 27, 2022 - ATP French Open
Apr 13, 2022 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Nov 13, 2021 - Next Gen ATP Finals
Carlos Alcaraz - Sebastian Korda Key Points
- Sebastian Korda is 1-4 vs. Carlos Alcaraz
- Sebastian Korda has never played a top-1 player in his career.
- Carlos Alcaraz owns an 85 percent win rate in third-round matches.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 17-1 on the 2026 ATP season.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Prediction
Barring a major collapse, Carlos Alcaraz will surely win this match. The big test now is whether he can carve out a convincing win over Korda, whom he has swept in the last three meetings.
With the way Korda is serving this year, I’d say Carlito will have a hard time winning by at least five games in this match. Korda, who is winning 80 percent of his first serves and saving 60 percent of his break points, will hold the majority of his service games against Alcaraz, though it won’t be sufficient to beat the world’s No.1. Despite the lopsided 1-4 record against Alcaraz, Korda was able to put up a decent fight in every loss he suffered in their series.
Our betting prediction for Sebastian Korda vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Sebastian Korda +4.5 games
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
