Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Prediction & Picks - ATP Miami
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Miami Picks
After a gallant stand against Jannik Sinner, Joao Fonseca is poised to put up another impressive showing against Carlos Alcaraz in the second round of the 2026 Miami Open. Fonseca is currently a hot pick to cover +3.5 games.
Current Form:
Carlos Alcaraz kicks off a fresh campaign after coming a little bit short of another big title in Tennis Paradise. The world’s No.1 will be playing Brazilian sensation and fan favorite Joao Fonseca, who gave Alcaraz’s rival, Jannik Sinner, problems in their first encounter.
Alcaraz opened at -640 ahead of his first showdown with Fonseca. The Spaniard carries a 16-1 record, including a 9-0 record against players ranked outside the top-20.
As for Fonseca, the Brazilian wunderkind is still eyeing his first top-10 win of his career. In his first-ever match against a top-10 opponent, Fonseca put up a gallant stand against Jannik Sinner, 6-7, 6-7.
Can Fonseca impress again in his first meeting with Alcaraz?
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Joao Fonseca Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 14, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 11, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 21, 2026 - ATP Qatar Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Mar 19, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 10, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 4, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 19, 2026 - ATP Rio Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Joao Fonseca Key Points
- Carlos Alcaraz is 9-0 vs. players outside the top-20 in 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz has an 82 percent win rate in second-round matches.
- Joao Fonseca lost to Jannik Sinner 6-7, 6-7 in the fourth round at the 2026 Indian Wells Open.
- Joao Fonseca is winning 73.4 percent of his first serves in 2026.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz escapes Joao Fonseca in an entertaining match. Fonseca already got a taste of top-caliber tennis, and he will get another chance to prove his mettle against the world’s No.1.
Fonseca is listed at +484 moneyline, but he also carries a lot of value at +3.5 games (+160). Against one of the best ball-strikers on the tour, Fonseca managed to hold all but one of his service games and even captured a breakpoint conversion against Sinner.
Alcaraz remains the no-brainer pick to win this match-up. However, Fonseca has the weapons and bravado to go toe-to-toe with the reigning Australian Open champion. Fonseca’s serves and lightning-fast forehands will come in handy in this fascinating duel with Alcaraz.
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Joao Fonseca: Joao Fonseca +3.5 Games
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
