Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gael Monfils Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
2-2 in his last four matches, Gael Monfils finds himself in a winnable match with Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the first round of the 2026 Madrid Open.
Current Form:
After making his final stop in Monte Carlo, Gael Monfils takes his farewell tour in Madrid, where he was a two-time quarterfinalist. Monfils, a -130 moneyline underdog, picked up his first clay-court win of the year at the expense of fellow veteran Tallon Griekspoor 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 before running out of gas against Alexander Bublik 6-4, 6-4 in the second round of that tournament.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli, a -170 moneyline favorite, is 11-5 on clay and 13-10 overall this season. The Argentine reached the semifinal at Marrakech and the second round in Monte Carlo, but he got eliminated from both tournaments by the Spanish teen rising star Rafael Jodar. Carabelli carries a 65 percent win rate on clay.
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Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gael Monfils Form
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Gael Monfils Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 15, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 14, 2026 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 4, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 3, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Apr 2, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
Mar 31, 2026 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Apr 7, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 5, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 6, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 4, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 26, 2026 - ATP Acapulco Open
Feb 24, 2026 - ATP Acapulco Open
Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils Key Points
- Gael Monfils is 2-2 in his last four matches.
- Gael Monfilks owns a 68 percent win rate in first-round matches
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli owns a 65 percent win rate on clay.
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 3-1 vs. players outside the top-100
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Our Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gael Monfils Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Gael Monfils upsets Camilo Ugo Carabelli 3-6, 6-4, 7-6
I am taking my chance with Monfils to pull off a minor upset over Carabelli. Monfils is 2-4 vs. top-100 players in 2026, proving that he still has the goods to beat the best players on the ATP Tour. Carabelli will always be a difficult opponent, especially on his favorite clay surface. However, as he displayed in his win over Griekspoor, Monfils can still overpower his opponents by injecting pace into his shots and controlling the flow with his serves.
Monfils, who won 77 percent of his first balls against Griekspoor, must serve well again to get him a chance in this match. Carabelli isn’t known for his serves, but he’s a decent counterpuncher who can rattle off points quickly. No doubt, this will be a dogfight, but at the same time, a winnable match for Monfils, who owns a 68 percent win rate in first-round matches.
Our betting prediction for Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Gael Monfils will win.
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