Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Picks - NFL

USA - NFL

Denver Broncos
1/17/26 16:30
Buffalo Bills

Prediction:

 

UNDER 46.5

-120
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 by Travis Pulver | in NFL Picks

The Denver Broncos will get a shot at redemption Saturday afternoon when they host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EST on Saturday, January 17, at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO, with coverage provided by CBS.

This will be Buffalo's second consecutive postseason meeting with the Broncos. Last year, it was in an AFC Wild Card game hosted by the Bills. Buffalo was the No. 2 seed last season with a 13-4 record, while the Broncos were 10-7 and the No. 7 seed. Denver got on the board first with a touchdown on the opening drive of the game, but the Bills controlled the game the rest of the way, scoring 31 unanswered points.

But this season, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league: No. 2 in total yards allowed (277.2 ypg), No. 2 in rushing yards allowed (91.1 ypg), and No. 3 in scoring (18.3 ppg). However, on the offensive side of the ball, while Bo Nix has improved tremendously from his rookie season, the offense is prone to stalling and/or struggling to get started at times. Buffalo still has Josh Allen at quarterback and has developed the No. 1 rushing offense in the league. However, while they excel at running the ball, they struggle to stop it (No. 28, 136.2 ypg allowed). If the Broncos can keep Josh Allen, Denver’s path to the AFC Championship game gets a lot easier.   

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Form

Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills Latest Matches

Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos Latest matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

Denver Broncos
19 :  3
Los Angeles Chargers

Dec 25, 2025 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
13 :  20
Denver Broncos

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
20 :  34
Jacksonville Jaguars

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
34 :  26
Green Bay Packers

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Las Vegas Raiders
17 :  24
Denver Broncos

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

Washington Commanders
26 :  27
Denver Broncos
W W W W L W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

Denver Broncos
19 :  3
Los Angeles Chargers

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
20 :  34
Jacksonville Jaguars

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
34 :  26
Green Bay Packers

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
22 :  19
Kansas City Chiefs

Nov 6, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
10 :  7
Las Vegas Raiders

Oct 26, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
44 :  24
Dallas Cowboys
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Dec 25, 2025 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
13 :  20
Denver Broncos

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Las Vegas Raiders
17 :  24
Denver Broncos

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

Washington Commanders
26 :  27
Denver Broncos

Nov 2, 2025 - NFL

Houston Texans
15 :  18
Denver Broncos

Oct 12, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
11 :  13
Denver Broncos

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Philadelphia Eagles
17 :  21
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Latest matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Jan 11, 2026 - NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars
24 :  27
Buffalo Bills

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  8
New York Jets

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
12 :  13
Philadelphia Eagles

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
20 :  23
Buffalo Bills

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
39 :  34
Cincinnati Bengals
L W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  8
New York Jets

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
12 :  13
Philadelphia Eagles

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
39 :  34
Cincinnati Bengals

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
44 :  32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nov 2, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
28 :  21
Kansas City Chiefs

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
20 :  23
New England Patriots
L L W W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jan 11, 2026 - NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars
24 :  27
Buffalo Bills

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
20 :  23
Buffalo Bills

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers
7 :  26
Buffalo Bills

Nov 20, 2025 - NFL

Houston Texans
23 :  19
Buffalo Bills

Nov 9, 2025 - NFL

Miami Dolphins
30 :  13
Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos against Buffalo Bills : Head to Head (H2H)

Denver Broncos

50 %

Buffalo Bills

50 %

Jan 12, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
31 :  7
Denver Broncos

Nov 13, 2023 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
22 :  24
Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos - Buffalo Bills Key Points

  1. Buffalo leads the all-time series vs. Denver 24-17-1, including two prior postseason games (both won by Buffalo).
  2. With a win, Bo Nix can become the second quarterback drafted by the Broncos to win a postseason game for Denver (Tim Tebow was the first).
  3. Buffalo is 1-0 SU and ATS when an underdog on the road this season; Denver is 6-1 SU when favored at home and 3-4 ATS.
  4. Betting Public: 73% of TOTAL tickets and 71% of the handle are on the OVER.

Our Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

Home teams often get three points just because of home-field advantage, but the Broncos are just 1.5-point favorites, which suggests the Bills should give them an incredible fight. That means it will be a close, hard-fought, competitive game, which has me hesitant to pick a winner, SU or ATS. However, we are talking about a Denver defense that can shut down James Cook and harass Josh Allen all day long. While Bo Nix has been much better than he was during his rookie season, the Denver offense is not the most reliable. The Broncos may not have a running game capable of exploiting Buffalo’s run defense issues. This will all translate to a low-scoring game.

Our Buffalo vs. Denver Pick: UNDER 46.5

Prediction:

 

UNDER 46.5

-120
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Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Picks