New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Prediction & Picks - NFL

Prediction published on 1/18/26, 11:31 AM  by Bill Christy | Modified on 1/18/26 at 8:51 PM in NFL Picks

The Sunday set of games will begin with the New England Patriots (14-3) hosting the Houston Texans (12-5). This will be the 1st time these teams have met in the playoffs since 2017. In that one, the Patriots were amid their dynasty reign, and the Texans were just an upstart franchise that was hoping to take down the elite Pats. That ended with the Patriots dominating with a 34-16 win.

The Patriots are certainly not in a current dynasty, but the 14-win season and tremendous play by Drake Maye have many Patriot fans hoping this will be the start of another long run of top-level play. They are coming off a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. In the win, they held the Chargers to just over 200 total yards and just 1 of 10 on 3rd down. It was a typical Mike Vrabel team performance. He has this Patriots defense allowing just under 19 points per game to opponents. That is good enough for 4th in the league and has played a large part in why they were able to win those 14 regular-season games.

Houston used a dominating defense performance last week against the Steelers to advance to this game. Not only did they hold the Steelers to just 175 total yards, but they forced 3 turnovers and took 2 of those turnovers back for touchdowns. After leading just 7-6 heading into the 4th quarter, the Texans scored twice with their defense and added a field goal and a Woody Marks run to ultimately win the game 30-6.

In a battle between 2 of the best defenses in the league, this game could come down to who does not make the late-game mistake. Points will be at a premium, and even a field goal will feel like a touchdown in this matchup.