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by Travis Pulver in NFL Picks
The Buffalo Bills will try to get back on the right side of the scoreboard this week when they travel down to Georgia to play the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff for this AFC East-NFC South battle is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EST on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo had been on cruise control prior to last week’s surprising loss to the New England Patriots. It was a sloppy game for the Bills with 11 penalties and three turnovers. They held the ball for over 34 minutes, but struggled to complete drives with touchdowns. The defense had been vulnerable against the run but held the Patriots to 71 yards on the ground. As for Atlanta, the Falcons have had issues with consistency on offense. It is actually the No. 7 unit in total yards, but they are only scoring 19 points a game (27th in the league). They have a similar issue on the defensive side of the ball. The unit is first in the league in total yards allowed (244 per game; 135 passing and 109 rushing), but they give up 21.5 points per game (15th in the league).
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Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
0.8 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
|
17
|
0.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Oct 5, 2025 - NFL
Sep 28, 2025 - NFL
Sep 18, 2025 - NFL
Sep 14, 2025 - NFL
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Jan 26, 2025 - NFL
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 5, 2025 - NFL
Sep 28, 2025 - NFL
Sep 18, 2025 - NFL
Sep 7, 2025 - NFL
Jan 19, 2025 - NFL
Jan 12, 2025 - NFL
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Sep 14, 2025 - NFL
Jan 26, 2025 - NFL
Jan 5, 2025 - NFL
Dec 15, 2024 - NFL
Dec 8, 2024 - NFL
Nov 10, 2024 - NFL
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Sep 28, 2025 - NFL
Sep 21, 2025 - NFL
Sep 14, 2025 - NFL
Sep 7, 2025 - NFL
Jan 5, 2025 - NFL
Dec 29, 2024 - NFL
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Sep 28, 2025 - NFL
Sep 7, 2025 - NFL
Jan 5, 2025 - NFL
Dec 22, 2024 - NFL
Dec 1, 2024 - NFL
Nov 3, 2024 - NFL
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Sep 21, 2025 - NFL
Sep 14, 2025 - NFL
Dec 29, 2024 - NFL
Dec 16, 2024 - NFL
Dec 8, 2024 - NFL
Nov 17, 2024 - NFL
Buffalo Bills - Atlanta Falcons Key Points
- Atlanta leads the all-time series vs. Buffalo 7-6, but the Bills have won the last two.
- Atlanta is 3-1 when they have a rest advantage under Raheem Morris (since 2024).
- Buffalo is 15-10 under Sean McDermott when at a rest disadvantage (since 2017).
- Betting Public: 78% of spread tickets and 70% of the handle are on the Bills.
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Our Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction
Up until last week’s game against the Patriots, the Bills' defense had struggled against the run. With two solid running backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, it would be smart for the Falcons to focus more on running rather than maintaining a balanced attack (49% run, 51% pass). But they seem determined to put the ball and the fate of the offense in the hands of Michael Penix Jr., who has just three touchdown passes after four games. Buffalo could easily get upset in this game if the offense comes out flat again and the Atlanta defense is half as good as it looks on paper. But I don’t think the Falcons' defense is as good as it seems, nor do I think the Bills' offense will come out flat. Buffalo will take care of business in this game.
Our Buffalo vs. Atlanta Pick: Bills -4.5
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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