Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Prediction & Picks - ATP US Open
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by Bradley Gibbs | in ATP US Open Picks
Following another strong tournament run, this time at the ATP 1000 event in Cincinnati, where he reached the semis, Brandon Nakashima will be looking to make a splash at the US Open. The American competitor has been handed a first-round match against Sebastian Baez, who isn't exactly known for being at his best on hard-courts, though the Argentine has been digging deep of late, suggesting that he could make this ever so slightly uncomfortable for his higher-ranked opponent.
In the betting, 'Over 3.5 Sets' rates as an interesting angle all the time odds of -125 are on offer. The Argentine has not been going down without a fight of late, while Nakashima, for all he has been in decent form, has not won many matches in straight sets, nor does he have a fantastic recent record of winning Grand Slam matches in straight sets.
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Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Form
Brandon Nakashima and Sebastian Baez Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 22, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 21, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 19, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 18, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 16, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 13, 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 25, 2026 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
Aug 16, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 14, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 5, 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
Aug 4, 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
Jul 23, 2026 - ATP Kitzbuhel Open
Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- Brandon Nakashima has not won any of his last four matches in straight sets.
- Sebastián Báez has only lost one of his nine completed hard-court matches on the North American swing in straight sets.
- Sebastián Báez has recently avoided straight-set defeats against higher-ranked players such as Zizou Bergs and Hubert Hurkacz.
- In the last year, Brandon Nakashima has won zero out of three hard-court matches at Grand Slams in straight sets.
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Our Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
Brandon Nakashima has upped his game in 2026, so much so that he's now a very serious hard-court competitor, but he's been more of a grinder than anything else in recent weeks, often needing to fight hard in matches that go beyond the minimum number of sets, which means that 'Over 3.5 Sets' looks a little generously priced at odds of -125. Odds of -149 would be much more accurate, especially as more than three sets have been played in each of Nakashima's three hard-court matches at Grand Slams in the last year.
Our Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez Pick: Over 3.5 Sets.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
