Anhelina Kalinina vs Naomi Osaka Prediction & Picks - WTA Mutua Madrid Open

Prediction published on 4/25/26, 12:30 PM  by Bradley Gibbs | Modified on 4/28/26 at 6:35 AM in Tennis Picks

Naomi Osaka clearly had a point to prove during the last round. The former Grand Slam winner hasn't played much tennis in 2026, and there were serious question marks over her readiness as she stepped onto the clay for the first time in nearly a year. However, as champions often do, the hugely talented player showed us all that she's ready to rock and roll, so much so that she's clearly being underestimated here. If Osaka is fit and healthy, as she appeared to be on Thursday, then she easily beats someone like Anhelina Kalinina. 

Let's be honest, the Ukrainian is far from a poor player, and she can tussle at times on clay, as she proved by beating Marie Bouzkova last time out. However, we shouldn't overreact to that result. The early market is clearly showing some recency bias after that effort, but when push comes to shove, Osaka is simply a much better player than Kalinina, so much so that the world number 15 is worthy of shorter odds. Betting her at -143 offers value for money.