Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur Prediction & Picks - ATP US Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP US Open Picks
Andrea Guerrieri is out to capitalize on a massive +9.5-game spread advantage in his US Open first-round duel with Alex De Minaur, who has been battling inconsistency this season.
Current Form:
Alex De Minaur had an underwhelming US Open campaign by his own standards. Australia’s No.1 men’s singles player started his North American hard-court swing with a quarterfinal finish in Washington but he followed it up with a third-round exit in Montreal and a fourth-round flameout in Cincinnati.
After reaching the final of a Challenger tournament in Grodzisk, Mazowiecki, Poland, world No.187 Andrea Guerrieri picked up three straight wins to book his spot in the main draw of the 2026 US Open. Guerrieri defeated Aziz Dougaz 6-4, 6-2 in the final qualifying match.
The Matchup: Alex De Minaur is a heavy favorite coming into his first-ever meeting with Andrea Guerrieri, who received a ginormous +9.5 headstart in the spread market.
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Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur Form
Andrea Guerrieri and Alex De Minaur Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 27, 2026 - ATP US Open
Aug 26, 2026 - ATP US Open
Aug 24, 2026 - ATP US Open
Jul 12, 2026 - ATP Umag Open
Jul 11, 2026 - ATP Umag Open
Jun 24, 2026 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 19, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 17, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 15, 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 6, 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
Aug 4, 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
Jul 31, 2026 - ATP Washington Citi Open
Andrea Guerrieri - Alex De Minaur Key Points
- Alex De Minaur is 12-8 on the hard court in 2026.
- Alex De Minaur has suffered two losses to players outside the top 100 in 2026.
- Andrea Guerrieri is 8-2 on the hard court in 2026.
- Andrea Guerrieri is 11-4 in first-round matches in 2026.
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Our Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur Prediction
Key Stats: Andrei Guerrieri is winning 72.4 percent of his first serves in hard-court matches in 2026 and has dropped only 16 service games across 8 matches on the surface.
What to Expect: Guerrieri might have zero chance of upsetting Alex De Minaur, even in his sloppy form, but it feels the +9.5-game advantage is going to make a big difference in this matchup.
De Minaur hasn’t been super dominant lately, and that could open the window of opportunity for Guerrieri to cover some ground and make the final score respectable for his cause.
Fearless Forecast: Alex De Minaur wins 7-5, 7-5, 6-4
Our betting prediction for Andrei Guerrieri vs. Alex De Minaur: Andrei Guerrieri +9.5 games
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
