Alexander Bublik vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction & Picks - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

ATP 11 Kazachstan
Alexander Bublik
4/27/24 12:10
ATP 191 Spain
Roberto Carballes Baena

Prediction:

 

Alexander Bublik to Win

 

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 by Bradley Gibbs in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks

Saturday's ATP action in Madrid includes a match between the exciting yet often underwhelming Alexander Bublik and Roberto Carballes Baena. The Spanish player is ranked someway below the Kazakh talent yet thanks to his superior recent form on clay, he's quite a strong favourite in the early betting. Can he maintain his current form? Or will a player who is capable of beating even the best players on tour show us what he's made of?

Alexander Bublik vs Roberto Carballes Baena Form

Alexander Bublik and Roberto Carballes Baena Latest Matches

Alexander Bublik Latest matches
L W L L L L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

5/6 (83%)

Apr 7, 2024 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Alexander Bublik
0 :  2
Borna Ćorić

Mar 23, 2024 - ATP Miami

Alexander Bublik
0 :  2
Matteo Arnaldi

Mar 10, 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Alexander Bublik
0 :  2
Alex De Minaur

Mar 2, 2024 - ATP Dubai Open

Ugo Humbert
2 :  0
Alexander Bublik

Feb 28, 2024 - ATP Dubai Open

Alexander Bublik
2 :  0
Tallon Griekspoor

Feb 22, 2024 - ATP Qatar Open

Alexei Popyrin
2 :  0
Alexander Bublik
Roberto Carballes Baena Latest matches
W L W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Apr 25, 2024 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

Dominik Koepfer
1 :  2
Roberto Carballes Baena

Apr 18, 2024 - ATP Barcelona

Roberto Carballes Baena
0 :  2
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Apr 17, 2024 - ATP Barcelona

Lorenzo Musetti
0 :  2
Roberto Carballes Baena

Apr 16, 2024 - ATP Barcelona

Hugo Grenier
0 :  2
Roberto Carballes Baena

Apr 7, 2024 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II

Roberto Carballes Baena
0 :  2
Matteo Berrettini

Apr 6, 2024 - ATP Grand Prix Hassan II

Pavel Kotov
0 :  2
Roberto Carballes Baena

Alexander Bublik - Roberto Carballes Baena Key Points

  1. When the pair last met, Alexander Bublik won by two sets to nil.
  2. Bublik is currently ranked 50 places above Carballes Baena.
  3. Bublik has a 100% record against Carballes Baena on clay.
  4. Alexander Bublik recently reached a final in Dubai, so we know he's capable of going deep into tournaments.

Our Alexander Bublik vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction

At the end of the day, Carballes Baena has more recent experience on clay that Bublik, while he's certainyl been playing well, so he deserves to be the favourite ahead of this clash. However, does he really deserve to be such a strong favourite ahead of a match against a player ranked 50 places above him? As far as I'm concerned, definitely not. Sure, we know that Bublik is the type of player to often throw matches, while his attitude is often questionable, but hsi talent is not, and if he's on it, this is absolutely the sort of match he could make light work of. Last season on clay, we saw Bublik beat much better players than Carballes Baena. Frankly, odds of +195 are just a little too generous given the overall quality of the Kazakh player. Our Prediction: Alexander Bublik to Win. 

Prediction:

 

Alexander Bublik to Win

 

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Alexander Bublik vs Roberto Carballes Baena Picks