Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Prediction & Picks - ATP US Open

Prediction published on 9/4/26, 1:29 PM  by Lou Aguila in ATP US Open Picks

In a match expected to go the distance, Daniel Merida is looking like an attractive upset candidate at +152 against Alex Michelsen in the third round of the 2026 US Open.

Current Form:

Alex Michelsen caught a big fish at the US Open Championships after stunning an in-form Brandon Nakashima (6-3, 6-4, 6-4), who is coming off deep runs in Montreal and Cincinnati. Michelsen, who also swept Federico Cina 6-4, 6-1, 6-0 in the first round, improved to 23-9 on hard courts in 2026.

After sweeping Marton Fucsovics, Daniel Merida went on to eliminate Andrey Rublev 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4. The up-and-coming Spanish star is now 8-2 in the North American hard-court swing and 20-7 on the hard courts in 2026.

The Matchup: Merida and Michelsen are 1-1 in their head-to-head series. Michelsen is the favorite at -195, but Merida is looking dangerous with every win in this tournament.