Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez Prediction & Picks - ATP Miami
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by Bradley Gibbs | in ATP Miami Picks
As the ATP 1000 event in Miami Gardens, Florida, continues on Friday, there's a rather intriguing encounter between Adam Walton and Sebastian Baez due to take place. In the early betting, the Aussie, who is ranked quite a bit lower than his Argentine opponent, is only a narrow outsider, and that's doesn't look right. Walton comes into this match in decent form, but he hasn't exaclty beaten anyone of serious note, while he wasn't overly convincing when beating fellow Aussie Rinky Hijikata in three sets last time out.
Sebastian Baez comes into this contest off the back of losing to Indian Wells finalist Daniil Medvedev, but he can't be judged too harshly for that result, especially as he nicely beat Jiri Lehecka in straight sets prior to that defeat. Known as something of a South American clay-court specialist, Baez has already proved that he can do very well on hard courts in 2026, reaching the final of the ATP event in Auckland back in January. This looks like a great opportunity for him to pick up another win.
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Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez Form
Adam Walton and Sebastian Baez Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Mar 17, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 16, 2026 - ATP Miami
Mar 6, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 4, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 23, 2026 - ATP Acapulco Open
Feb 19, 2026 - ATP Delray Beach Open
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Mar 9, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 5, 2026 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 28, 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
Feb 27, 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
Feb 26, 2026 - ATP Santiago Open
Adam Walton - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- Sebastian Baez has won all of his recent matches against lower-ranked players.
- When Adam Walton last faced a higher-ranked player, he came up short.
- Adam Walton has now lost four of his last five hard-court matches against higher-ranked players.
- Sebastian Baez has won each of his last six matches against lower-ranked players.
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Our Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
I truly am surprised to see that Sebastian Baez is available at odds of -137 to win this match. For my money, that's a pricing mistake and not just a tiny one. Let's face it, despite being in seemingly decent form, Adam Walton does not have the most encouraging recent record against higher-ranked players, and I'm just not sure that the early market has considered this fact enough.
Baez has a very strong recent record in matches of this nature, so much so that he absolutely should be a stronger favorite. Take the early value if you can.
Our Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez Pick: Sebastian Baez to Win.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
