WTA 1000 Miami: More of the same from Sabalenka?
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Tournament history
One of the top events to feature on the WTA calendar, the Miami Open is about as big as it gets outside of the Grand Slams. Played on outdoor hard courts, this event is held at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Given that we are talking about a very serious event, it won’t come as a surprise to learn that some of the best players in the game have lifted the trophy in recent years.
See below for the recent winners and finalists of the WTA 1000 event in Miami:
2021 - Ashleigh Barty defeated Bianca Adreescu
2022 - Iga Swiatek defeated Naomi Osaka
2023 - Petra Kvitova defeated Elena Rybakina
2024 - Danielle Collins defeated Elena Rybakina
2025 - Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jessica Pegula
Stopping Sabalenka won’t be easy
Just yesterday, we saw Aryna Sabalenka get the job done in Indian Wells, with the Belarusian taking revenge on Elena Rybakina for January’s Australian Open defeat.
Given that the world number one clearly has her game in solid shape, she’ll be looking to go all the way this week. Not only is she in hot form, but Sabalenka knows exactly what it takes to be successful in Miami, winning this tournament a year ago.
As the futures betting below shows, Sabalenka is strongly fancied to go all the way for the second tournament on the spin.
Outright betting odds from our top sportsbooks:
Aryna Sabalenka +250
Elena Rybakina +550
Iga Swiatek +700
Coco Gauff +1200
Amanda Anisimova +1200
Jessica Pegula +1200
Victoria Mboko +1400
Mirra Andreeva +2000
Elina Svitolina +2200
Karolina Muchova +2200
All other players +4000 or bigger.
Plenty of people will be behind Sabalenka at odds of +250, while I’m sure Elena Rybakina, who has reached the final of this event on two previous occasions, will be popular amongst outright bettors too.
Should we fade the favorite?
Make no mistake about it, Aryna Sabalenka is going to be difficult to stop this week. She’s the best player on the planet and she’s in form, so don’t expect a shock exit from the world number one. However, she’s not the only top player looking good right now, while she’s certainly not the only top player who likes to get down to business at Hard Rock Stadium, making this far from a one-horse race.
For my money, +250 doesn’t quite represent value. In other words, I’m looking to take on the world number one, and I'll be doing that by betting on Jessica Pegula at odds of +1200.
As far as I’m concerned, Jessica Pegula has been building very nicely at the start of 2026. She reached the semi-finals at the Australian Open, losing out to the eventual winner, while she stepped on the gas to win the WTA event in Dubai, once again showing that she’s a serious hard-court competitor.
It’s also not as if the American has floundered since that success in Dubai. She played very well in Indian Wells, beating the likes of Jelena Ostapenko and Belinda Bencic, before again being knocked out by Rybakina, this time in the quarters.
In Miami, though, Pegula could easily do a little better. After all, she’s clearly in a positive place with her game right now, and the return to this venue could help her go that little bit further.
Pegula reached the final of this tournament last year, and having delivered a tournament win, a semi-final and a quarter-final in her last three appearances, the world number five looks a little generously priced at +1200.
Our WTA 1000 Miami Pick: Jessica Pegula to win the tournament.
