WTA 1000 Madrid: Can Swiatek outlast Sabalenka?
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
Tournament history
Played on fast clay that favors aggressive play, the Mutua Madrid Open is a top-tier WTA event that is played annually. This tournament takes place at La Caja Magica, situated in the San Fermin area of the Spanish capital city.
Big-name players typically win this event, and as the list of recent winners and runners-up shows, you need to be a high-ranking player to thrive in Madrid.
Recent winners and finalists of the Mutua Madrid Open:
- 2021 - Aryna Sabalenka defeated Ashleigh Barty
- 2022 - Ons Jabeur defeated Jessica Pegula
- 2023 - Aryna Sabalenka defeated Iga Swiatek
- 2024 - Iga Swiatek defeated Aryna Sabalenka
- 2025 - Aryna Sabalenka defeated Coco Gauff
You really do need to be a top player to go all the way in Madrid. Each of the last five winners were ranked inside the WTA’s top six when lifting the title in Madrid, while none of the last ten finalists were ranked outside of the top ten.
Dominance from Sabalenka and Swiatek
As the Mutua Madrid Open is a top event, it’s not exactly unsurprising that top players have thrived in recent times, though two players have been particularly dominant since 2021.
The tournament history above shows us that both Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek enjoy getting down to it on the Madrid clay, winning four of the last five renewals of this tournament between them.
Of the two, it is the current world number one who has done best, winning the event in 2021, 2023 and 2025. She also reached the 2024 final, losing out to Swiatek, who finished as the runner-up in 2023. Both players are in the main draw this time around, and let’s be real, it’ll be a shock if at least one of them fails to make the final.
Select Swiatek in the betting
Lots of bettors and fans will be siding with Aryna Sabalenka this week, and you can’t really blame them for that, but at better odds, Iga Swiatek is the player who represents the most value in the pre-tournament betting from our top sportsbooks.
It is fair to say that Swiatek has not quite been at her best in 2026, but now that she has some clay-court tennis under her belt, we should not be shocked if the Polish player makes a splash this week.
We know that Swiatek loves the conditions in Madrid, where her front-footed approach is definitely aided by the speedy surface and altitude. Not only did she reach the final in 2023, before winning the event in 2024, but she made the semis last year despite not being at her best, so if she’s ready to rock and roll this time around, she’s not going to be far away.
Sure, Mirra Andreeva got the better of the six-time Grand Slam winner in Stuttgart last week, but should we really focus heavily on that defeat? Probably not. Given her tournament record and the fact that she typically plays her best tennis around this time of year on clay, Swiatek is worth supporting to go all the way for the first time in 2026.
Our WTA 1000 Madrid Pick: Iga Swiatek to win the tournament.
