Women’s US Open: Tournament Preview and Outright Bets
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
Is Sabalenka’s crown there for the taking?
When Aryna Sabalenka beat Jessica Pegula in straight sets to land her maiden US Open title a year ago, the Belarusian looked close to unstoppable, so it was little surprise that she began the 2025 season by reaching the final of the Australian Open. It was however somewhat surprising that she faltered in that final, going down by two sets to one against Madison Keys.
The world number one continued to flex her muscles following that defeat, winning tournaments in Miami and Madrid, before reaching the final of the French Open, but she again came unstuck at the death, despite winning the opening set, eventually losing to Coco Gauff.
Since losing that French Open final, Sabalenka has arguably taken a couple of steps in the wrong direction. Sure, she reached the semis at Wimbledon, which for most players is a fantastic achievement, but she lost in disappointing circumstances against Amanda Anisimova, who was demolished by Iga Swiatek in the final, while she lost to Elena Rybakina in straight sets in Cincinnati in her latest event.
As a result, the time is now to take on the world number one, who isn’t quite operating at the same level as she was this time last year. There’s plenty of quality in the draw this week, so don’t be too surprised if Sabalenka fails to retain her crown. After all, we haven’t seen a female player successfully defend their US Open title since 2014, when Serena Williams claimed this prestigious prize for the third year in a row.
Do you need to be a high-ranker to win the Women’s US Open?
In my preview of the Men’s US Open, I looked at how recent winners of the tournament have all been very high-ranking players. Is this the same for the women? Let’s find out.
Below are the last ten Women’s US Open winners and where they stood in the WTA Rankings at the time of their victory:
2024 - Aryna Sabalenka (ranked 2nd)
2023 - Coco Gauff (ranked 6th)
2022 - Iga Swiatek (ranked 1st)
2021 - Emma Raducanu (ranked 150th)
2020 - Naomi Osaka (ranked 10th)
2019 - Bianca Andreescu (ranked 15th)
2018 - Naomi Osaka (ranked 19th)
2017 - Sloane Stephens (ranked 83rd)
2016 - Angelique Kerber (ranked 2nd)
2015 - Flavia Pennetta (ranked 26th)
It’s fair to say that the US Open is typically won by high-ranking players, but as far as the women are concerned, there has been more room for manoeuvre. After all, Emma Raducanu won the tournament when ranked 150th in the world, which may fill those looking to bet on a big underdog with confidence.
We cannot say that an unexpected winner is completely out of the question when it comes to the women’s tournament. While none of the last then Men’s US Open winners held a rank worse than 6th, six of the last ten Women’s US Open winners were ranked outside of the top ten at the time of their Flushing Meadows success.
Women’s US Open betting market
Before we go any further, let’s look at how the futures market is shaping up ahead of this prestigious event.
Iga Swiatek +240
Aryna Sabalenka +285
Coco Gauff +700
Mirra Andreeva +1100
Elena Rybakina +1200
Naomi Osaka +1800
Victoria Mboko +2000
Madison Keys +2000
Amanda Anisimova +2500
Emma Raducanu +2500
Jessica Pegula +3000
Clara Tauson +5000
Jasmine Paolini +5000
All other players +6000 or bigger.
Is there a value futures bet to be placed?
OK, so is there a value futures bet to be placed as the action at Flushing Meadows gets up and running? As far as I’m concerned, the answer to that question is yes, though it’s not the defending champion that catches the eye in the market.
I am looking at a former champion, though, and not just any former champion, a former champion who has worn the US Open crown not once but twice. Naomi Osaka won this event in 2018 and 2020, during a two-year period in which she looked set to rule the women’s game for a while. Things didn’t quite work out that way, but after some time in the tennis wilderness, the four-time Grand Slam winner and former world number one may just be getting back to her best.
Osaka recently opened up about her struggles with postpartum depression following the birth of her two-year-old daughter, which explains her fall from the edge of the tennis cliff, but she’s back now, and let’s be honest, even if she’s nearly the player she was when winning this title back in 2020, she’ll tussle with anyone.
Having recently reached the final of the hard-court event in Toronto, which is one of the very best WTA tournaments outside of the Grand Slams, Osaka stated that she’s feeling good, and a Naomi Osaka that is feeling good should be feared by all at Flushing Meadows.
