Does Wembanyama Lead the NBA MVP Race Two Weeks In?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Victor Wembanyama’s MVP odds have shortened dramatically over the first two weeks of the 2025-26 NBA season. From a fringe contender before opening night, Wembanyama has moved to +380 at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shorter odds.
Before his nine-point dud against the Suns at the weekend, Wembanyama had 31 stocks while averaging 31.2 points and 14.6 rebounds across five games. His numbers took a hit with his uncharacteristic showing against Phoenix, but that’s going to be no more than a blip.
Wemby’s Progress
The former first overall pick is stronger than before. He’s able to use his body more effectively at both ends of the court and has become markedly more forceful as an offensive player.
His turnover rate is at a career low. As a scorer, he’s taking 42% of his shots in the restricted area, compared with 27% last season. Only 17% of his shots are from beyond the arc, having been up at 44% in 2024-25. He’s become a far more efficient scorer at the rim, capable of bullying opposing big men and working his way to layups and dunks with a mix of force and finesse. He’s shooting 81% at the basket from 76% and 70% in 2024-25 and 2023-24, respectively.
San Antonio was already much better with Wembanyama on the floor than off it. That gap has increased further. The Spurs are +15 per 100 possessions in his minutes and -1.1 when he’s off the floor. Their defense has a paltry 101.5 rating with the Defensive Player of the Year favorite on the court.
San Antonio’s Record
The Spurs’ 5-1 start has changed how they should be evaluated. Not only is Wembanyama looking like the most impactful player in the league – he has been ably supported by Stephon Castle, who has taken a further leap, and rookie Dylan Harper.
Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson have been shooting the ball well. Devin Vassell is getting up eight three-point attempts per game.
It’s usually considered that a team needs to be a top four seed in their conference for a player to have a real shot at winning MVP. That has been dispelled a few times in recent years, but the wide range of outcomes for the Spurs certainly impacted the feasibility of Wembanyama as MVP before opening night.
San Antonio’s first fortnight has been bright. They look every bit capable of being an automatic playoff team, even in a stacked Western Conference, and much of that is down to Wembanyama.
There’s a world, too, where voters are swayed towards Wembanyama even if the Spurs are a play-in team. It’s possible his season is that outrageous that voters have no choice – it’s in-play for him to average 32 points, 14 rebounds, a handful of assists, and five stocks.
Other Candidates
The sportsbooks give Gilgeous-Alexander the edge at the time of writing. Gilgeous-Alexander is leading a Thunder team that might win 70 games. He’s going to be in the mix all year.
There could be some voter fatigue when it comes to SGA. For Nikola Jokić, it’s a question of how much effort he puts in to posting big-time scoring numbers. He’s looked like he’s easing his way into the season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has made a red-hot start. Luka Dončić, too, has been stuffing the box score. Both players have a similar candidacy to Wembanyama – good, not great, teams and eye-catching statistics.
Antetokounmpo is Wembanyama’s nearest rival as it stands. Gilgeous-Alexander might be the betting favorite, but his impact through the first two weeks hasn’t been in the same category as the Greek Freak and the Alien.
It’s fair to put Wembanyama atop the NBA MVP ladder. He certainly shouldn’t be lower than second place.
