UEFA Champions League: Play your cards right with these player props
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Which player props stand out ahead of gameday six in the UCL League Phase?
Those looking for a few midweek player props certainly aren’t short of opportunities, with nine UEFA Champions League games taking place on Tuesday, before another nine hit our screens on Wednesday.
Ahead of the upcoming UCL action, I’ve gone down the card route, and there are four players who look a little generously priced to pick up a booking. Let’s get stuck in.
Inter vs Liverpool: Hakan Calhanoglu to Receive a Card
Currently available at odds of +340, Inter’s Hakan Calhanoglu may just be a little leniently priced to get booked against Liverpool this evening.
Most known for his range of passing and his ability to bang goals in from long range, Calhanoglu is not exactly averse to stepping beyond the rules in big games, especially on the continent.
The Turkish midfielder, as stylish as he is with the ball at his feet, is far from the most mobile either, so don’t be too surprised to see him turn to cynical fouls against a Liverpool midfield that may have too much in the locker in terms of physicality.
We recently saw Calhanoglu go into the book against rivals Milan, while he often got booked in big games last season, averaging 0.28 cards per 90 minutes in all competitions. In the UCL last term, he averaged 0.33 cards per 90 minutes. In other words, the Turkish international picked up a card every 33% of the time. 33% implies odds of +203, thus making odds of +340 look too chunky to ignore.
Real Madrid vs Man City: Aurelien Tchouameni to Receive a Card
Moving on to Wednesday, I cannot resist betting on Real Madrid’s Aurelien Tchouameni to get on the wrong side of the referee against Man City.
No Real Madrid player has been booked more times than Tchouameni this season, with the midfield destroyer picking up five cards in all competitions, averaging 0.29 cards per 90 minutes.
You wouldn’t say that the 25-year-old is the most prolific fouler, but he does have a habit of often going too far with a tackle or being very cynical in the biggest games. He was booked twice for France during the knockouts of EURO 2024, while since April, he’s seen yellow in sizable games against the likes of Atletico Madrid, Villarreal, Croatia (for France) and Barcelona (twice).
Real Madrid vs Man City: Nico O’Reilly to Receive a Card
In the same game, for the visitors, I’m also going to recommend betting on Nico O’Reilly, who is fast becoming one of Man City’s best performers, but the lively youngster often approaches big games with a level of enthusiasm which often sees him receive unwanted attention from the man with the whistle.
It’s fair to say that O’Reilly is one of City’s most regular foulers, with the 20-year-old making 22 fouls in all competitions this season, the second most of any of Pep Guardiola’s players.
No Citizen has made more UCL fouls than O’Reilly and with his task at the Bernabeu a difficult one, the youngster looks more likely to get a card than odds of +390 would have us believe.
Leverkusen vs Newcastle: Dan Burn to Receive a Card
Last but certainly not least, ahead of what should be a feisty encounter between Leverkusen and Newcastle, Dan Burn is worth betting on to collect a card at odds of +265.
Dan Burn is without a doubt one of Newcastle’s steadiest performers. The big defender is reliable and works his socks off, though his desire often turns into recklessness, with Burn receiving more cards than any other Newcastle player this term.
In all competitions, Burn has picked up seven cards, averaging 0.36 cards per 90 minutes. That stat alone makes off of +265 look quite big. Booked in two out of five in the UCL this term, including in Marseille during the previous round of games, the Englishman may struggle to stay out of trouble in Germany.
