Analyzing the Opening Odds for the 2026 NBA Finals
by Sam Cox
Odds for the 2026 NBA Finals went live at major sportsbooks soon after the Oklahoma City Thunder lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.
Following Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury in the playoffs, it’s the first time in several years that the Boston Celtics aren’t among the favorites. The Eastern Conference is wide open, with Damian Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton also ruled out for the 2025/26 season due to injuries.
Oklahoma City is in a league of its own in the West. These odds are bound to move considerably throughout what’s likely to be a fascinating offseason, but the Thunder are inevitably going to enter next season as the title favorites.
Opening 2026 NBA Championship Odds
- Oklahoma City Thunder +220
- Cleveland Cavaliers +800
- Houston Rockets +850
- New York Knicks +900
- Orlando Magic +1200
- Minnesota Timberwolves +1400
- Los Angeles Lakers +1500
- Denver Nuggets +1600
- Boston Celtics +1700
- Los Angeles Clippers +2300
- Golden State Warriors +2900
- San Antonio Spurs +3000
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Defending Champions Far Clear
Winners of 68 regular-season games, the Thunder were the overwhelming title favorites heading into the playoffs. They had scares in the second round and the Finals, being taken to a Game 7 on both occasions, but overcame those challenges to set the foundation for a dynasty.
Sam Presti is yet to delve into his deep treasure chest of draft assets. The second apron is going to be a problem in the not-too-distant future, but for now, the Thunder are set to strengthen their roster even further around league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his co-stars, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This team is hellacious on defense, led by Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso. Williams showed he’s capable of being a second option on offense with a string of clutch playoff performances. Holmgren, already an elite defender, is going to improve further on offense.
Barring major injuries, the Thunder are going to be heavy title favorites throughout next season. The combination of depth, top-end talent, good coaching, and playoff experience makes them a terrifying postseason opponent.
Three Closest Challengers
Houston’s trade for Kevin Durant bumped them to the second-shortest price in the Western Conference.
While Cleveland is going to be without Darius Garland to start the season, it’s reasonable to have them as the east’s best team with injuries taking the Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks out of contention.
A first Conference Finals appearance in 25 years ended in heartbreak at the hands of the Pacers, and Tom Thibodeau was shown the door, but the Knicks still have a five-man core that deserves to be taken seriously in this market. A new coach might be able to find that magic balance between offense and defense with Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson on the floor.
New York is the most proven of these teams in the playoffs. Their failings in the last couple of postseasons loom large. Houston might seem inexperienced, but Durant, Fred VanVleet, and Ime Udoka have been there are done it. The pressure increases year-to-year for Cleveland.
Teams with Work To Do
The Magic have already made their big move in trading for Desmond Bane, so perhaps they could be in the tier above. They’re also a team to consider when it comes to preseason NBA picks.
Minnesota swung and missed in their pursuit of Durant. How does that impact the locker room? Do they look elsewhere for an offensive upgrade to help Anthony Edwards? What does Julius Randle do this offseason?
The Celtics aren’t worth thinking about at +1700, even with the slight chance Tatum returns for the playoffs. The Clippers haven’t won a playoff series since 2021 – they aren’t a team to be taken seriously.
Denver is more interesting. There’s plenty to believe in, even if you’re not high on Michael Porter Jr. The combination of Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon around the world’s best player could yet be a title-winning formula again.
It’s clear the Lakers and Warriors have work to do around their respective stars. Los Angeles must improve its defense and acquire a starting center. Their odds are bound to shorten dramatically once they do, though, so perhaps this is a decent opportunity to back them. Rob Pelinka clearly knows it’s an area that needs addressing.
Golden State is going to be at the epicenter of trade rumors all summer. It won’t be Giannis Antetokounmpo, though could they find some size and shooting on the wing?
To wrap this tier up, we’ve got Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper on the Spurs. They’re a year or two away as currently constructed but would become second favorites for the title if they added Giannis.
